UK General Election 2029 - Trading ONLY thread

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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ForFolksSake
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The emergence of Your Party is fragmenting the left-of-centre vote. which benefits Reform
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Euler
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The Greens are picking up votes from Labour as well. I think when campaigning gets underway in earnest for the next election, things will change a little, but I think Labour hasn't got a hope. It's just a question of what the make-up of the rest is and how much Reform and the Conservatives can cannibalise their votes.

The electorate is really putting two fingers up at the main parties at the moment.

It's funny how the Greens are appealing to younger voters. Of course, this age group doesn't really understand politics or have that much life experience, so the Greens are just pushing popular angles to the naive and gullible to get votes. That's relatively easy when you are a minority party. You know you are never going to get in power, so you just say what you think will get you votes.
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jamesedwards
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Euler wrote:
Tue Oct 21, 2025 10:42 am
..you know you are never going to get in power, so you just say what you think will get you votes.
https://archive.org/details/vhsvault_Sp ... tart=627.8
tico
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Hi
You are absolutely right they have made no absolute statements about privatising the NHS . Also they have made no racist statements . But their popularity is based on a one subject philosophy and that is to stop/control immigration .Just read between the lines .
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Tico
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firlandsfarm
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tico wrote:
Wed Oct 22, 2025 10:58 am
Hi
You are absolutely right they have made no absolute statements about privatising the NHS . Also they have made no racist statements . But their popularity is based on a one subject philosophy and that is to stop/control immigration .Just read between the lines .
Regards
Tico
I don't need to read between the lines, I directly read that they are against uncontrolled and illegal immigration as am I. Their popularity is from challenging The Establishment and it's reluctance to see what is often the obvious and again I support them fully on that. But my point is as you confirm. They are said to have 'said these things' when they haven't but because such incorrect claims are regularly made they become true (a repeated lie). It is then that I challenge. As for possible NHS privatisation, it is usually only mentioned in criticism with advantages ignored. In my opinion the NHS is in trouble because of a combination of inefficiency and demand fuelled by a form of wokery. It has become fashionable to have an ailment, especially mental, and that is placing an impossible demand on its services.
tico
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Their popularity is from challenging The Establishment
WOW !
That is quite a stunning statement ,the last thing Reform are going to do is challenge the establishment because they are the establishment . They are far right .It is the left that challenge the establishment not the right and certainly not the far right who are firmly in the pockets of the neoconic billionaires .
Personaly I don't like extremes of either left or right and think the best model for any economy is a mixed economy where properly regulated business can flourish and there is a healthy public sector .
Regards
Tico
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LeTiss
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That's a common misconception to say Reform are far-right. Much of their support lies in traditional working class areas that were very safe Labour seats for many years. For people to suggest that life-long Socialists have now become far-right, shows those people have no understanding whatsoever of what is really going on with a growing number of British people
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jamesedwards
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LeTiss wrote:
Wed Oct 22, 2025 5:08 pm
That's a common misconception to say Reform are far-right. Much of their support lies in traditional working class areas that were very safe Labour seats for many years. For people to suggest that life-long Socialists have now become far-right, shows those people have no understanding whatsoever of what is really going on with a growing number of British people
Totally agree.

I don't understand this obsession with Reform being "the far right". They are about as far right as 1980's Conservatives.
tico
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LeTiss wrote: ↑
Wed Oct 22, 2025 5:08 pm
That's a common misconception to say Reform are far-right. Much of their support lies in traditional working class areas that were very safe Labour seats for many years. For people to suggest that life-long Socialists have now become far-right, shows those people have no understanding whatsoever of what is really going on with a growing number of British people

...so what is going on then with a growing number of British people ?
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firlandsfarm
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tico wrote:
Wed Oct 22, 2025 5:00 pm
... the last thing Reform are going to do is challenge the establishment because they are the establishment . They are far right ... the best model for any economy is a mixed economy where properly regulated business can flourish and there is a healthy public sector.
Reform are not The Establishment and neither are they Far Right (that fashionably overused label directed at anything/anyone with an alternative view!). I agree with your dream of "the best model" but who decides what is "properly regulated business" and what is "a healthy public sector"? I guess at the end of the day it is the voting public and they are deciding that Reform's picture is the one they want (on a first past the post basis). Reform's problem (and that of the betting man) is holding on to that for the next 3+ years.
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Naffman
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Reform lose by 11.4% in Caerphilly despite being 2/5 to win the seat. Turnout was very good too.

Reform will obviously be more popular in England but they’ve got to be a bit concerned by this result.
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Naffman
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Reform moved from 1.9 to evs for Most Seats at next GE.

People either love or hate reform so tactical voting will be a big factor, but the GE is ages away, Starmer and Badenoch could easily go next year and then the polls could easily become tighter especially as Jenrick seems to be running a Reform like campaign.
tico
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Yes a good result and nice to see common sense prevail . But the parliamentary system is failing us .Every few years we get the chance to rubber stamp a particular shade of grey ,who once in power aresl*ck to the rich and hammer everyone else .
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jamesedwards
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tico wrote:
Fri Oct 24, 2025 10:19 am
Every few years we get the chance to rubber stamp a particular shade of grey ,who once in power aresl*ck to the rich and hammer everyone else .
Without "the rich" we would be totally screwed.

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firlandsfarm
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Naffman wrote:
Fri Oct 24, 2025 8:17 am
Reform lose by 11.4% in Caerphilly d espite being 2/5 to win the seat. Turnout was very good too.

Reform will obviously be more popular in England but they’ve got to be a bit concerned by this result.
It's difficult to apply this vote split to the whole of the UK because of the distortion of the Plaid Cymru involvement ... There is no 'independence' themed party in England. If there was some tactical voting (I'm not sure there was much other than the electorate thinking "OK, a vote for Labour is a wasted vote so if this is between Reform and PC I would prefer ...").
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