Kalshi and Polymarket

[megarain]

I was interested in the user number.

AI gave me the following :

Betfair, as part of the Flutter Entertainment group, reported having more than 4.2 million monthly active users in 2025, according to the company's latest annual report. (WTF ? )

This figure includes users across the Betfair and Paddy Power brands. Additionally, a 2025 article noted that Betfair Casino had more than 4 million active users.

The platform has also seen significant user engagement, with monthly transaction volumes reaching £1.2 billion in June 2025.

It doesnt say the monthly Betfair users - They appear to have all been converted to the casino/sportsbook, as the declining volumes on the exchange
highlight.

According to The Block, the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket saw a significant rebound in activity last month, with October's trading volume, number of active traders, and new markets all reaching historic highs. Its competitor Kalshi surpassed Polymarket in trading volume in October, reaching $4.4 billion.

Data shows that the number of monthly active traders on Polymarket hit a record high of 477,850 in October, surpassing the previous record of 462,600 set in January. This strong rebound for the platform comes after a decline in monthly active users throughout the year, with the number of monthly traders dropping to a low of 227,420 in August. Compared to September's 246,610, October's data represents a month-over-month increase of 93.7%.

Polymarket's monthly trading volume also rebounded to a record $3.02 billion last month, after hovering around or below $1 billion from February to August. The number of new markets opened on the platform in October reached 38,270, nearly three times that of August.

[Naffman]

Why are they called Prediction markets when it’s simply just gambling?

Is there a loophole in US law or is it just to make it sound ‘better’ like stock trading?

[megarain]

It’s a loophole.

Only a few states have legislation to allow sports gambling, but all allow financial gambling.

Prediction markets bet on financial contracts - so, hey presto, you can side step legal barriers to entry.

I have little doubt there will be major roadblocks along the way.

[Naffman]

It’s a loophole.

Only a few states have legislation to allow sports gambling, but all allow financial gambling.

Prediction markets bet on financial contracts - so, hey presto, you can side step legal barriers to entry.

I have little doubt there will be major roadblocks along the way.

Don Jr is on the board of Poly and Kalshi isn’t he which is just hilarious, think it would suffer from a Dem government but just find it quite funny that bettors on there think it’s any different to gambling.

[megarain]

Flutter results not inspiring the market, down 4% after hours.

Launching Fan Duel Predicts in Dec (wonder how much thought went into the name)

Interview Peter Jackson with Jim Cramer (lacklustre from both would be my description)

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/fl ... rthp-feeds

[Euler]

Y, the most interesting element of the results was: -

"FanDuel Predicts, a new prediction market product which will include sports in states without access to regulated sports betting, to launch in December. Capitalizing on FanDuel's strong brand presence and CME Group's exchange capabilities, with strategic investment to expand the FanDuel customer ecosystem"

[jamesedwards]

Y, the most interesting element of the results was: -

"FanDuel Predicts, a new prediction market product which will include sports in states without access to regulated sports betting, to launch in December. Capitalizing on FanDuel's strong brand presence and CME Group's exchange capabilities, with strategic investment to expand the FanDuel customer ecosystem"

https://www.flutter.com/news-and-insigh ... g%20states.

[megarain]

Flutter down 11% today.

Draft kings betting app extends lead against rivals

https://open.substack.com/pub/ekgline/p ... medium=ios

[wearthefoxhat]

Flutter down 11% today.

Draft kings betting app extends lead against rivals

https://open.substack.com/pub/ekgline/p ... medium=ios

Broke through the 1Y low on 7th April 2025, could easily drop further.

1 Year Flutter.png

[Morrid4]

Draft kings share trajectory looks very similar! Is it just a sign of the general way things are going.

Can anyone explain how you can have prediction markets for sports in states where you cannot gamble on sports? Or am I missing something?

[wearthefoxhat]

Can anyone explain how you can have prediction markets for sports in states where you cannot gamble on sports? Or am I missing something?

Reckon it's a way of circumventing tougher set up rules that new companies have to adhere to when offering gambling on sports. "Prediction markets do not = gambling"....

Captain Jack Andrew explains it better in the first 5 minutes of this y-t video, the rest is essentially describing what Betfair has done for 20 years+!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrKRhjye1sw

[Morrid4]

Thanks for that,

Very well explained, Captain Jack is always the man.

DM

[jamesedwards]

Can anyone explain how you can have prediction markets for sports in states where you cannot gamble on sports? Or am I missing something?

Reckon it's a way of circumventing tougher set up rules that new companies have to adhere to when offering gambling on sports. "Prediction markets do not = gambling"....

Captain Jack Andrew explains it better in the first 5 minutes of this y-t video, the rest is essentially describing what Betfair has done for 20 years+!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrKRhjye1sw

"Event contracts aren't gambling". The Gambling Commission is dead!