Laying Short priced runners

[psycho040253]

Surely all of this comes down to value ultimately? Value is a subjective thing obviously.

If you are doing it at value prices it will be profitable in the long term if you are doing it at non value prices in the long run you won't be profitable.

No matter if you are doing it at value or not you will have examples of good wins and good losses.

I think Andy's correct. It comes down to expertise and experience in determining value.

Some people will judge that odds of 1.6 (say) are too low and feel that, at those odds, the horse is layable. Others may feel that 1.6 is too high and therefore the horse is backable. This is the main issue with this system. It's relatively easy to define a 'set of principles' for this system but very difficult/impossible to define a set of 'rules' which others could use. I guess that this is why Mugsgame is successful and why I wasn't.

Psycho

[Zenyatta]

Another recent example from this Saturday:

'Master Minded' started at 3.20, was hovering around that price, approaching one of the last fences, it suddenly came off the bridle, the price spiked out to 11.00 at once. But then, 'Master Minded' quickly recovered and romped home to win.

[Lagos]

A couple to have alook at today

1230 Kempton Nov Hdl DARIAN 1.33

205 Kempton Beg Ch MOSSLEY 1.25

[psycho040253]

A Jockey to keep your eye on is Tony McCoy. He tends to let his horse settle and find its own pace just after the start. This often causes his horse to increase in odds. Then, about half way into the race, he'll start to press the horse. If it responds, he knows that it may be capable of winning. The odds will then start to fall. Often, he gives his horse a breather at some point during the race. Usually, this is 3/4 into the race. This causes the odds to increase. Then, he starts to gradually increase the pressure on the horse. If the horse responds, the odds start falling again. As long as the horse keeps responding, he keeps increasing the pressure and the odds keep falling. If the horse fails to respond, he eases off, saves the horse for another day and lets it come home in its own good time.

I'm sure that there are trading opportunities here.

Psycho

[spreadbetting]

Chablias another short priced novice, 1.63 before the off, couple of fences in the second fav falls and it's 1.1

[mugsgame]

laying Mossley here @ 1.17
Canni Thinker travels well, hoping for 1.3

[mugsgame]

Another perfect illustration of what can be achieved.

Mossley was too short, this on the back of Hendersons 7 timer, this added to the value.

In play it soon was trading at 1.12, I had another lay bet in at 1.12 and a speculative bets in at 2,3 & 4. (This was on top of my initial trade of 1.17 and a back at 1.3)

It made 1 mistake and happy days, even before that it was out to 1.4.

The weeks wages in the bag....nice

[psycho040253]

Chablias another short priced novice, 1.63 before the off, couple of fences in the second fav falls and it's 1.1

Yup Spreadbetting - that's why I ended up losing.

Now, it's straight laying for me. I stay well away from such races now.

I wonder if Mugsgame layed it and what his outcome was? And, if not, why not?

Psycho

[mugsgame]

No I didn't Physco

I went to Bike show this morning and didn't get back until 1:30
I would have layed it though, you don't win every time. But that's part of the game isn't it?

If your inference is that I don't tell you when I lose, then that's a cheap shot. So that you (and others) do not think that. I'll post up any bets I have pre play, with the price I take and the exit point I am looking for. (Like I did with Mossley) However, sometimes I don't get involved until the race is in play and I see an opportunity. I have said before that I do not Lay all short price horses blind. I need to see a reason to lay before I do it.

[psycho040253]

No I didn't Physco

I went to Bike show this morning and didn't get back until 1:30
I would have layed it though, you don't win every time. But that's part of the game isn't it?

If your inference is that I don't tell you when I lose, then that's a cheap shot. So that you (and others) do not think that. I'll post up any bets I have pre play, with the price I take and the exit point I am looking for. (Like I did with Mossley) However, sometimes I don't get involved until the race is in play and I see an opportunity. I have said before that I do not Lay all short price horses blind. I need to see a reason to lay before I do it.

Mugsgame

I'm not here to take cheap shots at anyone. Anyone who knows me will tell you that I don't do such things. I can't see the point. What I was asking was - If you layed it early on, did it go high enough for you to exit with a profit? Also, if you didn't lay it, what was your rationale for not doing so?

Continuing with the theme of laying inexperienced horses .......

What if the rider is also inexperienced (Conditional/amateur) as well as the horse? That would give double the chance of netting a good profit, at least in theory, because then, all that is needed is for the jockey or horse to screw up and it's profit all the way.

Psycho

[Lagos]

LINFIELD 120 KID CASSIDY

[No Sea to Rough]

Why do you say that I think she will come in - curious?

[Lagos]

It may come in but as Mugsgame says one mistake and it will go out to cover for a free bet.

[No Sea to Rough]

Ok many thanks for that.

[mugsgame]

may come in but as Mugsgame says one mistake and it will go out to cover for a free bet.

I am with you on this Lagos.

He is taking a strong hold going to post, I am on at 1.32 Looks like he will lead, if this is the case get on in play to top bet up at 1.2

Try to get out at 1.5 - 1.6.