BSP v ISP

[Shergar6]

Hi all,

Does anyone have any analysis on BSP v ISP?

I notice BSP tends to be lot bigger than ISP at times but just wondering what it is like on average or over a large data set. Im looking at odds less than or equal to c.11/8

[jamesedwards]

I don't have any data, but in the meantime...

In theory BSP overround should average to 100%, whereas (according to Google), the industry SP overround averages to around 1.7% to 1.9% per runner.

Applying this to a 10 runner race BSP overround would average to around 100% whereas industry SP overround would average to around 118%.

This would be across the whole book however, and doesn't take into account your specific price range. In my experience the variance between the two SPs has a direct relationship with price. The higher the price, the greater the variance is likely to be.

[jamesedwards]

More specifically Google says the estimated BSP on an 11/8 industry SP fav is around 2.45 to 2.55.

[getagrip68]

I have a dataset of a few thousand races with the morning line prices for fancied horses taken about an hour before racing, the average BSP for horses between evens and 11/8 is roughly 1.067x that of the morning line price.

[Dublin_Flyer]

As James said the higher prices have a much greater variance. I threw together the last 7k races with 11/8 or below runners and all runners for comparison. They're in xlsb format to get under the 500kb file size limit.