UK General Election 2029 - Trading ONLY thread

[Euler]

Hi all,
I see Angela Rayner is now fav for next labour leader with Wes Streeting second fav.Starmer is stubborn and the lobby who are pulling his strings(and we all know who they are) wont want to let go of their puppet .But Rayner is as safe as Starmer and fully committed to the Blairite idealogy and arse licking to the rich ,so they might insist that Starmer makes a grand entrance just to give Labour a bit of a facelift .Loads of volatility here ,I might even be tempted to have a trade
Regards
Tico

All these markets are really good trading markets.

The Gorton and Denton by-election looks mis-priced to me. But I'm hoping there will be some swings in there on the way to voting.

Starmer is currently 1.11 to be replaced before 1st April

[jamesedwards]

I really dislike the fact that they all use the word child poverty, without explaining that it's relative poverty. It's pretty deceptive. You have people defending it, thinking that they are talking about starving children when in fact they are talking about families on less than two-thirds of the average income. Completely different context.
Top

I should imagine that families living on less than two-thirds of the average income are near are well below the poverty level .OK we are not talking about Victorian workhouses (although Reform would willingly bring those back) but we are talking about children whose present lives are significently effected by low incomes and bad housing . Compare this to rich kids who get the best education and the best jobs .Poverty in childhood is a major factor in the wipeout of peoples potential.
Tico

The trouble with benefits is the higher you make them the more of a poverty trap they become. You have to make work pay, or it encourages negative behaviour which is no good for anyone. It amazes me the people who won't work for £500 per week because it costs them £450 in benefits. If you don't make a start on the ladder you'll never climb it.

[jamesedwards]

Hi all,
I see Angela Rayner is now fav for next labour leader with Wes Streeting second fav.Starmer is stubborn and the lobby who are pulling his strings(and we all know who they are) wont want to let go of their puppet .But Rayner is as safe as Starmer and fully committed to the Blairite idealogy and arse licking to the rich ,so they might insist that Starmer makes a grand entrance just to give Labour a bit of a facelift .Loads of volatility here ,I might even be tempted to have a trade
Regards
Tico

All these markets are really good trading markets.

The Gorton and Denton by-election looks mis-priced to me. But I'm hoping there will be some swings in there on the way to voting.

Starmer is currently 1.11 to be replaced before 1st April

1.11 to NOT be replaced by 1st April

[Euler]

LOL, how bad a mis-read is that! Thanks.

[jamesedwards]

LOL, how bad a mis-read is that! Thanks.

There's something about two-runner markets that messes with my head sometimes too.

[firlandsfarm]

I'm doubting it will be before the May elections unless he stands down immediately and leaves the country in the hands of David Lammy!! God save us!

I can't see a replacement leader wanting to take over before the May elections because who wants to start their PM career being decimated in elections? It is close to nobody wanting the job before May. But then maybe he will agree to leave after Gorton and do a "Sunak" to protect the country from Lammy while the party goes through the selection process. To enter the May elections with a lame leader would be bad but it would allow the new leader and the party to blame a poor election result on the leadership mess.

It's a complete mess, politically worse than the Conservatives. I'm glad I don't have the job of advising them!

[Naffman]

Greens are going to be hard to beat in the by-election IMO, George Galloway not running helps and this area voted heavily Labour in 2024 - so voters will want to send them a message and I doubt these kind of people will vote Reform to do so.

[tico]

The trouble with benefits is the higher you make them the more of a poverty trap they become. You have to make work pay, or it encourages negative behaviour which is no good for anyone. It amazes me the people who won't work for £500 per week because it costs them £450 in benefits. If you don't make a start on the ladder you'll never climb it.

The vast majority of people on benefits are actually in work (government stat not mine) .This is the problem ,crap jobs crap pay .The biggest recipients of governmet handouts in the UK is the private sector , like farming,manufacturing ,utility companies and now the alternative energy industry which is a haven for every cowboy in the country.
regrads
Tico

[jamesedwards]

The trouble with benefits is the higher you make them the more of a poverty trap they become. You have to make work pay, or it encourages negative behaviour which is no good for anyone. It amazes me the people who won't work for £500 per week because it costs them £450 in benefits. If you don't make a start on the ladder you'll never climb it.

The vast majority of people on benefits are actually in work (government stat not mine) .This is the problem ,crap jobs crap pay .The biggest recipients of governmet handouts in the UK is the private sector , like farming,manufacturing ,utility companies and now the alternative energy industry which is a haven for every cowboy in the country.
regrads
Tico

It's the same poverty trap problem. Some people choose not to work more hours or look to further their career because they'll lose their income support benefits. The greater you make the benefits the more people will fall into this trap.