Front Runners

[MrJoeBlack]

I’ve been running an automation for about six months with good results on the flat, but I’m running into a consistent issue on the jumps. Front-runner sentiment seems to create big distortions late in the pre-race markets.

My historical data seems to indicate that there is a bot that kicks in 2 mins before the off - however the market seems to adjust to this relatively quickly. However, I am yet to find a way to account for the 'front runner money'. It’s easy to handle manually because I can work off of visual clues but I would need timing data (which is rarely consistent) for my automation.

Has anyone else noticed this timing pattern or found ways to adapt their automation around it? Would love to hear how others tackle the “front-runner money” problem.

[jamesedwards]

I’ve been running an automation for about six months with good results on the flat, but I’m running into a consistent issue on the jumps. Front-runner sentiment seems to create big distortions late in the pre-race markets.

My historical data seems to indicate that there is a bot that kicks in 2 mins before the off - however the market seems to adjust to this relatively quickly. However, I am yet to find a way to account for the 'front runner money'. It’s easy to handle manually because I can work off of visual clues but I would need timing data (which is rarely consistent) for my automation.

Has anyone else noticed this timing pattern or found ways to adapt their automation around it? Would love to hear how others tackle the “front-runner money” problem.

I'm guessing the effect you are seeing is people backing likely front-runners based on how they line up just before the off. Presumably this can only be done manually.

[MrJoeBlack]

Yes, that's exactly it - currently eroding the profit! I'll have to stick with manual adjustments for now.

[jamesedwards]

Yes, that's exactly it - currently eroding the profit! I'll have to stick with manual adjustments for now.

You could potentially do something using GPS tracking through TPD as they line up. Difficult to tell when they are lining up using this method though.

[Sonny]

Yes, that's exactly it - currently eroding the profit! I'll have to stick with manual adjustments for now.

You could potentially do something using GPS tracking through TPD as they line up. Difficult to tell when they are lining up using this method though.

Yes, especially when they are turning around and going in a circle, sometimes not the whole field - would probably very confusing when all you have are GPS data.

[Shergar6]

Hi,

I hope im not hijacking this post but I have an adjacent question.

How do you look up easily if horses are hold up horses or front runners pre off?

[Raskol(nee Kov)]

Hi,

I hope im not hijacking this post but I have an adjacent question.

How do you look up easily if horses are hold up horses or front runners pre off?

You're right to ask this. Some would have you believe it is very easy to decipher and there is a site somewhere which will give you the answers.

There isn't.

A lot of it is based on in-running comments studied from Racing Post, Sporting Life ATR etc. I've seen people create a system based on 'scoring' in-running comments and then trying to work out who is the likely leader. As an example, horses which have the comments 'led', 'made all', 'set slow pace' etc would get the highest number of points.

There are obvious pitfalls to this approach. When you have more than horse who has led in the past then your system has no way of working out who is the likely leader - though in those cases you could argue the lead will be contested and favour hold-up horses, but again there's a lot of guesswork there.

The other factor is that we don't know what owners/trainers have told their jockeys to do. Unless of course it is an Irish Maiden Hurdle and you can be absolutely guaranteed that the following cliche is true:

'Triers at the front, non-triers at the back.'

[Simoba]

Hi,

I hope im not hijacking this post but I have an adjacent question.

How do you look up easily if horses are hold up horses or front runners pre off?

You're right to ask this. Some would have you believe it is very easy to decipher and there is a site somewhere which will give you the answers.

There isn't.

A lot of it is based on in-running comments studied from Racing Post, Sporting Life ATR etc. I've seen people create a system based on 'scoring' in-running comments and then trying to work out who is the likely leader. As an example, horses which have the comments 'led', 'made all', 'set slow pace' etc would get the highest number of points.

There are obvious pitfalls to this approach. When you have more than horse who has led in the past then your system has no way of working out who is the likely leader - though in those cases you could argue the lead will be contested and favour hold-up horses, but again there's a lot of guesswork there.

The other factor is that we don't know what owners/trainers have told their jockeys to do. Unless of course it is an Irish Maiden Hurdle and you can be absolutely guaranteed that the following cliche is true:

'Triers at the front, non-triers at the back.'

Ain't that the truth re Irish racing!!!! Made me laugh that did, as it really could not be more obvious could it !!!!

[Simoba]

Hi,

I hope im not hijacking this post but I have an adjacent question.

How do you look up easily if horses are hold up horses or front runners pre off?

Websites like At The Races have Pace predictors ie hold up horses, prominent etc. Have no idea how accurate it is, but may give an idea for you. https://www.attheraces.com/racecard/New ... -2026/1405 scroll down and click on Pace tab