Front Runners

[MrJoeBlack]

I’ve been running an automation for about six months with good results on the flat, but I’m running into a consistent issue on the jumps. Front-runner sentiment seems to create big distortions late in the pre-race markets.

My historical data seems to indicate that there is a bot that kicks in 2 mins before the off - however the market seems to adjust to this relatively quickly. However, I am yet to find a way to account for the 'front runner money'. It’s easy to handle manually because I can work off of visual clues but I would need timing data (which is rarely consistent) for my automation.

Has anyone else noticed this timing pattern or found ways to adapt their automation around it? Would love to hear how others tackle the “front-runner money” problem.

[jamesedwards]

I’ve been running an automation for about six months with good results on the flat, but I’m running into a consistent issue on the jumps. Front-runner sentiment seems to create big distortions late in the pre-race markets.

My historical data seems to indicate that there is a bot that kicks in 2 mins before the off - however the market seems to adjust to this relatively quickly. However, I am yet to find a way to account for the 'front runner money'. It’s easy to handle manually because I can work off of visual clues but I would need timing data (which is rarely consistent) for my automation.

Has anyone else noticed this timing pattern or found ways to adapt their automation around it? Would love to hear how others tackle the “front-runner money” problem.

I'm guessing the effect you are seeing is people backing likely front-runners based on how they line up just before the off. Presumably this can only be done manually.

[MrJoeBlack]

Yes, that's exactly it - currently eroding the profit! I'll have to stick with manual adjustments for now.

[jamesedwards]

Yes, that's exactly it - currently eroding the profit! I'll have to stick with manual adjustments for now.

You could potentially do something using GPS tracking through TPD as they line up. Difficult to tell when they are lining up using this method though.

[Sonny]

Yes, that's exactly it - currently eroding the profit! I'll have to stick with manual adjustments for now.

You could potentially do something using GPS tracking through TPD as they line up. Difficult to tell when they are lining up using this method though.

Yes, especially when they are turning around and going in a circle, sometimes not the whole field - would probably very confusing when all you have are GPS data.

[Shergar6]

Hi,

I hope im not hijacking this post but I have an adjacent question.

How do you look up easily if horses are hold up horses or front runners pre off?

[Raskol(nee Kov)]

Hi,

I hope im not hijacking this post but I have an adjacent question.

How do you look up easily if horses are hold up horses or front runners pre off?

You're right to ask this. Some would have you believe it is very easy to decipher and there is a site somewhere which will give you the answers.

There isn't.

A lot of it is based on in-running comments studied from Racing Post, Sporting Life ATR etc. I've seen people create a system based on 'scoring' in-running comments and then trying to work out who is the likely leader. As an example, horses which have the comments 'led', 'made all', 'set slow pace' etc would get the highest number of points.

There are obvious pitfalls to this approach. When you have more than horse who has led in the past then your system has no way of working out who is the likely leader - though in those cases you could argue the lead will be contested and favour hold-up horses, but again there's a lot of guesswork there.

The other factor is that we don't know what owners/trainers have told their jockeys to do. Unless of course it is an Irish Maiden Hurdle and you can be absolutely guaranteed that the following cliche is true:

'Triers at the front, non-triers at the back.'

[Simoba]

Hi,

I hope im not hijacking this post but I have an adjacent question.

How do you look up easily if horses are hold up horses or front runners pre off?

You're right to ask this. Some would have you believe it is very easy to decipher and there is a site somewhere which will give you the answers.

There isn't.

A lot of it is based on in-running comments studied from Racing Post, Sporting Life ATR etc. I've seen people create a system based on 'scoring' in-running comments and then trying to work out who is the likely leader. As an example, horses which have the comments 'led', 'made all', 'set slow pace' etc would get the highest number of points.

There are obvious pitfalls to this approach. When you have more than horse who has led in the past then your system has no way of working out who is the likely leader - though in those cases you could argue the lead will be contested and favour hold-up horses, but again there's a lot of guesswork there.

The other factor is that we don't know what owners/trainers have told their jockeys to do. Unless of course it is an Irish Maiden Hurdle and you can be absolutely guaranteed that the following cliche is true:

'Triers at the front, non-triers at the back.'

Ain't that the truth re Irish racing!!!! Made me laugh that did, as it really could not be more obvious could it !!!!

[Simoba]

Hi,

I hope im not hijacking this post but I have an adjacent question.

How do you look up easily if horses are hold up horses or front runners pre off?

Websites like At The Races have Pace predictors ie hold up horses, prominent etc. Have no idea how accurate it is, but may give an idea for you. https://www.attheraces.com/racecard/New ... -2026/1405 scroll down and click on Pace tab

[wearthefoxhat]

Hi,

I hope im not hijacking this post but I have an adjacent question.

How do you look up easily if horses are hold up horses or front runners pre off?

Websites like At The Races have Pace predictors ie hold up horses, prominent etc. Have no idea how accurate it is, but may give an idea for you. https://www.attheraces.com/racecard/New ... -2026/1405 scroll down and click on Pace tab

Here's a screenshot of the 2.05 Newc today. The pace tab can be sorted to give an illustration. Near the bottom is the pace forecast = Weak.

2.05 Newc ATR Pace.png

One of the expected front runners fell early, the connections of the 33/1 Midnight Bella (second), decided to take the intiative from the front, and it nearly paid off.

---

As already said, it's only a guide, but a fairly good one. On the flat, it's more a question of the draw aligned with the pace. Some courses also suit front runners best too.

---

[Simoba]

Hi,

I hope im not hijacking this post but I have an adjacent question.

How do you look up easily if horses are hold up horses or front runners pre off?

Websites like At The Races have Pace predictors ie hold up horses, prominent etc. Have no idea how accurate it is, but may give an idea for you. https://www.attheraces.com/racecard/New ... -2026/1405 scroll down and click on Pace tab

Here's a screenshot of the 2.05 Newc today. The pace tab can be sorted to give an illustration. Near the bottom is the pace forecast = Weak.


2.05 Newc ATR Pace.png


One of the expected front runners fell early, the connections of the 33/1 Midnight Bella (second), decided to take the intiative from the front, and it nearly paid off.

---

As already said, it's only a guide, but a fairly good one. On the flat, it's more a question of the draw aligned with the pace. Some courses also suit front runners best too.

---

Very interesting that, thanks for info. I shall take more notice of that, especially when the turf Flat season starts soon. Is there a good website that you can recommend for the Flat with potential draw advantage and courses suiting front runners etc please? Piqued my interest that has, shall have a look at that over the Flat season. Thank you.

[wearthefoxhat]

Websites like At The Races have Pace predictors ie hold up horses, prominent etc. Have no idea how accurate it is, but may give an idea for you. https://www.attheraces.com/racecard/New ... -2026/1405 scroll down and click on Pace tab

Here's a screenshot of the 2.05 Newc today. The pace tab can be sorted to give an illustration. Near the bottom is the pace forecast = Weak.


2.05 Newc ATR Pace.png


One of the expected front runners fell early, the connections of the 33/1 Midnight Bella (second), decided to take the intiative from the front, and it nearly paid off.

---

As already said, it's only a guide, but a fairly good one. On the flat, it's more a question of the draw aligned with the pace. Some courses also suit front runners best too.

---

Very interesting that, thanks for info. I shall take more notice of that, especially when the turf Flat season starts soon. Is there a good website that you can recommend for the Flat with potential draw advantage and courses suiting front runners etc please? Piqued my interest that has, shall have a look at that over the Flat season. Thank you.

Today's 17:07 Southwell: Maybe not a great example, but food for thought.

ATR website has what you need.

Top right hand corner there's a draw advantage forecast: = None (High or Low sometimes)

The Pace card is sorted: Bint Al Daar has a pace figure of 7. At the bottom is a pace forecast of Weak. So there could be an advantage for a front runner to set the fractions. (Kate O'Reilly 2/1f tried to do that, despite having a pace figure of 3) Seems the market supported that idea, but it didn't work today. Worth noting with a pro jockey booked next time.

Then, clicking on the Draw tab without sorting, shows how much draw adv % (Expected wins/Actual wins), There's a blue box that allows you to look further at the draw data if desired.

I included the basic racecard data too. In this race, Bint Al Daar was well rated across the board too.

17.07 South Racecard.png

17.07 South Pace.png

17.07 South Draw.png

[Morrid4]

Mr joe black, I would think it is going to be very tricky to do anything other then manual clues and learn what drives the money close to the off over time. Total volume on irish markets can be so low (especially if there is a clashy Saturday going on) that the late money can be a huge% of the overall. Then you have factors like delays due to low sun and other reasons so very hard to automate something. TPD is very confusing on the line up of a jumps race and I would argue pretty useless compared to the visual pics. (I tried it for a few months). The other thing worth noting is type of race. Money for front runners in a 2m at Catterick where there is a known front runner in the field will be different to a 3m4f in heavy around Uttoxeter. The front runner money doesnt usually come until 1min before the scheduled off time in my experience but obviously that is not a strict rule.
Simoba, ATR, timeform and Sharp betting all have decent indicators for front running. I know Peter did a very decent video on this on the main Bet angel channel (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eXtPaAjViRE) I'm not certain it was this one but this covers a lot of the same stuff in the second half. Again, type of race, draw bias of course etc all have an impact and you will need to spend time studying it to figure those out more.