A Profitable Model For Predicting the Over/Under Market in Football

[Raskol(nee Kov)]

Ok I did some using stats for the last 12 games for each team and this is my small selection just for fun. Curiously they are all saying to Back Under 2.5 (or lay overs). Did anyone find any where it suggested otherwise to back overs 2.5?


Over Under 2.5 goals Sample Test 270226.png

Which site did you use to get that data?

[gstar1975]

Ok I did some using stats for the last 12 games for each team and this is my small selection just for fun. Curiously they are all saying to Back Under 2.5 (or lay overs). Did anyone find any where it suggested otherwise to back overs 2.5?


Over Under 2.5 goals Sample Test 270226.png

Which site did you use to get that data?

From thestatsdontlie for the shots but then realised you have to pay for the corner data. So I asked Gemini and used that data. Not sure if its correct. I will search for another site.

[gstar1975]

There is also the question of timing, when to place bets. Also could this infomation be used to take a position inplay?

[Bet79]

Looking at football data is it case of adding up the last 8-12 games worth of ‘HS’ and finding the average to enter into cell C3?

[gstar1975]

Looking at football data is it case of adding up the last 8-12 games worth of ‘HS’ and finding the average to enter into cell C3?

Yes.

[Bet79]

Thanks

[Vanila]

I would like a step by step explanation sir on this one

[Mike Oxlong]

Can’t help but wonder why they didn’t use expected goals in their calculations? I understand they stated that they wanted to use ‘free data on overall match statistics’ and avoided paying for further data, but is there not free sources of xG data? Admittedly, I have not done any looking myself.

I suppose the recent Opta contract termination with FBref removed the data from there, but this paper was published in 2020.