Today's Horse Racing

[ANGELS15]

15.35 Vaal in play for a few minutes before the race is even off?

[jamesedwards]

Overall they will fall or unseat more often than 1 in 100. But of course, seasoned jumpers with an easy lead and good jumping record will significantly out-perform the average. Therein lies the edge.

Really. That does surprise me, I can't recall it happening when I've watched a race only when it's been brought to my attention so I saw it as quite rare. But then I acknowledged I don't have the stats. Good comment James, thanks.

Google AI...

"The Final Obstacle: Accounts for roughly 6% to 9% of all falls that happen in a race. When applied to the total starting field, this equates to a less than 1.5% chance of any individual starter crashing out at the last."

Logic says this number will be trending downwards as obstacles get smaller and softer.

[ShaunWhite]

Google AI...

"The Final Obstacle: Accounts for roughly 6% to 9% of all falls that happen in a race. When applied to the total starting field, this equates to a less than 1.5% chance of any individual starter crashing out at the last."

Logic says this number will be trending downwards as obstacles get smaller and softer.

It always manages to let itself down,
the obstacles don't necessarily get easier,
and fatigue plays a big part in what falls so it probably trends upwards.

If its any runner falling then that's 1.5%/8 it'll be the fav, and as the best horse probably jumps better than average it's even less than that.?

[jamesedwards]

Google AI...

"The Final Obstacle: Accounts for roughly 6% to 9% of all falls that happen in a race. When applied to the total starting field, this equates to a less than 1.5% chance of any individual starter crashing out at the last."

Logic says this number will be trending downwards as obstacles get smaller and softer.

It always manages to let itself down,
the obstacles don't necessarily get easier,
and fatigue plays a big part in what falls so it probably trends upwards.

If its any runner falling then that's 1.5%/8 it'll be the fav, and as the best horse probably jumps better than average it's even less than that.?

Logic says this number will be trending downwards as obstacles get smaller and softer.

This line was me, not AI. And I meant the final fence faller % is probably trending downwards due to obstacles getting physically softer over time.

[jamesedwards]

Interesting stewards currently ongoing in the Limerick 18:20.

The winner, Marian Avenue, won easily but wiped out two horses at the second to last fence. One was forced to run out, but the other ended up a fast closing second by a length.

Never seen a horse DQ'd for interference two out before, but it could happen here.

Will sit this one out, happy with my position.

z191.jpg

[jamesedwards]

Interesting stewards currently ongoing in the Limerick 18:20.

The winner, Marian Avenue, won easily but wiped out two horses at the second to last fence. One was forced to run out, but the other ended up a fast closing second by a length.

Never seen a horse DQ'd for interference two out before, but it could happen here.

Will sit this one out, happy with my position.


z191.jpg

FPTP disqualified completely. Never seen that before either.