Tennis article

[Euler]

I'm head long into cleaning data from prior years to make the data more solid and then moving to Wimbledon to see what varation there is between surface types.

[Euler]

He is something interesting from RG26

Lay favourite at the start of set three and exit at the end of the set.

If fav lost first and second set, -£100 to a £100 liability.

If fav lost first and won second, +£618.

A lot of stats, RG26, are being inflated by the massive Sinner loss. But not this one.

[Morrid4]

He is something interesting from RG26

Lay favourite at the start of set three and exit at the end of the set.

If fav lost first and second set, -£100 to a £100 liability.

If fav lost first and won second, +£618.

A lot of stats, RG26, are being inflated by the massive Sinner loss. But not this one.

Is that just the mens side?

[Euler]

Both genders, I can cut it by either if you want.

[Morrid4]

Both genders, I can cut it by either if you want.

No need, but thanks very much. Just interested. Started collecting now on matches.
Very windy today in RG...not sure if it will have any effect.

[Euler]

Sabalenka out!

[Euler]

She just completely fell apart in the wind.

[Morrid4]

She just completely fell apart in the wind.

Any stats on : set up , double break up, £100 liability on the fav!

[sniffer66]

Interesting you should post this today Peter.

I've been away the last week but seeing as I have no tennis history data with BF pricing, I've had my recorder code saving the BF streams for each match over the last 7 days. I have some metadata on players and can do some filtering by ATP\WTA, surface and event if needed, but today I created some quick code to test this out with no filter - given it's only a small sample

One issue is that I have no score data linked so have had to infer S1\S2 end and the start of S3 from the price moves.

So far it does look a little promising, but given the number of qualifying matches I have it could be a random result

One thing the code does throw up currently is that a range on the fave start price might be useful. i.e > x < y . A very strong fave tends to take the 3rd the majority of the time, as expected . And then another max price on the lay entry at the start of the 3rd

I'll keep recording the streams over the next few weeks and see if the results hold up, and if the thresholds change. And if rank etc filtering is worth pursuing

So far I've had 38 qualifiers with a return of £4.94 (£1 flat stake) at 28.7% ROI, 2% comm.

n=38
pnl=+4.94
roi_liab=0.287

Still using the same best threshold filters from my backtest, closed matches as of now, £1 stake, 2% comm.

n=48
pnl=+10.43
ROI liability=+45.6%
net/bet=+0.217
lay win rate=43.8%
avg entry=1.477