Tennis article
He is something interesting from RG26
Lay favourite at the start of set three and exit at the end of the set.
If fav lost first and second set, -£100 to a £100 liability.
If fav lost first and won second, +£618.
A lot of stats, RG26, are being inflated by the massive Sinner loss. But not this one.
Lay favourite at the start of set three and exit at the end of the set.
If fav lost first and second set, -£100 to a £100 liability.
If fav lost first and won second, +£618.
A lot of stats, RG26, are being inflated by the massive Sinner loss. But not this one.
Is that just the mens side?Euler wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2026 9:41 pmHe is something interesting from RG26
Lay favourite at the start of set three and exit at the end of the set.
If fav lost first and second set, -£100 to a £100 liability.
If fav lost first and won second, +£618.
A lot of stats, RG26, are being inflated by the massive Sinner loss. But not this one.
Still using the same best threshold filters from my backtest, closed matches as of now, £1 stake, 2% comm.sniffer66 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2026 6:06 pmInteresting you should post this today Peter.
I've been away the last week but seeing as I have no tennis history data with BF pricing, I've had my recorder code saving the BF streams for each match over the last 7 days. I have some metadata on players and can do some filtering by ATP\WTA, surface and event if needed, but today I created some quick code to test this out with no filter - given it's only a small sample
One issue is that I have no score data linked so have had to infer S1\S2 end and the start of S3 from the price moves.
So far it does look a little promising, but given the number of qualifying matches I have it could be a random result
One thing the code does throw up currently is that a range on the fave start price might be useful. i.e > x < y . A very strong fave tends to take the 3rd the majority of the time, as expected . And then another max price on the lay entry at the start of the 3rd
I'll keep recording the streams over the next few weeks and see if the results hold up, and if the thresholds change. And if rank etc filtering is worth pursuing
So far I've had 38 qualifiers with a return of £4.94 (£1 flat stake) at 28.7% ROI, 2% comm.
n=38
pnl=+4.94
roi_liab=0.287
n=48
pnl=+10.43
ROI liability=+45.6%
net/bet=+0.217
lay win rate=43.8%
avg entry=1.477
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jamesedwards
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You more or less have to create a database of names and genders but then you also need to make sure that both players are the same gender as a way of error trapping that.
Generally speaking most of the top players will play in the most liquid tournaments so all we need to do is watch a couple of tournaments and you'll have 90% of the names anyway.
Generally speaking most of the top players will play in the most liquid tournaments so all we need to do is watch a couple of tournaments and you'll have 90% of the names anyway.
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jamesedwards
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- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
Thanks.Euler wrote: ↑Tue Jun 09, 2026 8:14 pmYou more or less have to create a database of names and genders but then you also need to make sure that both players are the same gender as a way of error trapping that.
Generally speaking most of the top players will play in the most liquid tournaments so all we need to do is watch a couple of tournaments and you'll have 90% of the names anyway.
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jamesedwards
- Posts: 5854
- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
