Today's Horse Racing

[ForFolksSake]

Hamilton 20:30
...... beaten .... happens

https://www.attheraces.com/replays/10-j ... finish=yes

[ForFolksSake]

Nottingham 14:35

... Barnaby Rudge ... over 50% of bets unmatched ... happens

[ForFolksSake]

Nottingham 15:05

Decade Of Time 1/2F ... drifted out to 7/1 ( to become the outsider of 3 ).... and it still won

https://www.attheraces.com/replays/11-j ... ngham/1508

[ForFolksSake]

Worcester 19:42

.... American Mike ... beaten on the nod by 8/15F ... happens

https://www.attheraces.com/replays/11-j ... finish=yes

[Euler]

Insane non R4 yesterday.

Coming so close after the Derby it just showed up what a bad decision the Derby was!

[jamesedwards]

I've been thinking about this too, and my best guess would be something TPD-based. Perhaps something towards the latter stages of a race that identifies horses trading at a high price point despite the data suggesting they are still in contention?

It's not an angle I've ever bothered to explore. There's so much you can do with TPD.

I've had a small 'back-the-outsider' rule running since this discussion. Not hit a winner yet and currently running -£155. But it came closest so far in the Thirsk 17:20 when my automation backed By Law at 999/1 which went on to trade as low as 7/1 in the run-in.

One day...

Oooooooooo...

Salisbury 15:48, my in-play 'back-the-outsider' automation backed Siddal at 475.0 which went on to trade as low as 2.0, beaten only half a length into 2nd.

Getting closer!

I GOT ONE!!!!!!!!

z211.jpg

Automation now running at +£873.98.

Will up my stake a little now there is proof of concept.

[firlandsfarm]

I've had a small 'back-the-outsider' rule running since this discussion. Not hit a winner yet and currently running -£155. But it came closest so far in the Thirsk 17:20 when my automation backed By Law at 999/1 which went on to trade as low as 7/1 in the run-in.

One day...

Oooooooooo...

Salisbury 15:48, my in-play 'back-the-outsider' automation backed Siddal at 475.0 which went on to trade as low as 2.0, beaten only half a length into 2nd.

Getting closer!

I GOT ONE!!!!!!!!


z211.jpg


Automation now running at +£873.98.

Will up my stake a little now there is proof of concept.

Doing great James, my bit of advice would be to maybe not hold out for a winner. I learned this the hard way when I backed an outsider for £100 @ 150 ,,, £100 was my standard stake for the system. I didn't see the race start but at about halfway round I saw my selection immeasurable lengths in front. I watched it hold that lead for ages. I could see the second horse slowly catching it but it looked to be holding on, it even reached 1.01 in running ... it came second by a length! So a £15,000 win became a £100 loss! Since then I've always used a green-up rule for large odds outsiders!

[jamesedwards]

my bit of advice would be to maybe not hold out for a winner. I learned this the hard way when I backed an outsider for £100 @ 150 ,,, £100 was my standard stake for the system. I didn't see the race start but at about halfway round I saw my selection immeasurable lengths in front. I watched it hold that lead for ages. I could see the second horse slowly catching it but it looked to be holding on, it even reached 1.01 in running ... it came second by a length! So a £15,000 win became a £100 loss! Since then I've always used a green-up rule for large odds outsiders!

I'm not one for greening. For me it would just be giving profit back in the long term.

[ForFolksSake]

... I've been to my dentist this afternoon, there is a picture of Liam Treadwell on the wall there. He used to go there for his dental treatment ⚕