Most youd risk on one market

[thepressure]

So im looking at the football goal markets, but o4.5 upwards, which tend to mean if i want to lay at odds of say 30+ i have to have a large portion of my bankroll in play, now if a goal goes in I adjust so im not risking the whole amount.

however..

Sometimes, more than i like, BetFair seem to close matches to trading, so I can be stuck with 25% of my roll in a market without the ability to trade out my profit/loss

Do you guys have any expereince with this and any advice?

[Kai]

BetFair seem to close matches to trading, so I can be stuck with 25% of my roll in a market without the ability to trade out my profit/loss

Unfortunately it's a part of the risk when trading inplay, don't place bets you can't afford to lose.

Everyone has a different risk tolerance, so might be worth scaling down your stakes to a comfortable level that works for you.

[Alpha322]

BetFair seem to close matches to trading, so I can be stuck with 25% of my roll in a market without the ability to trade out my profit/loss

Unfortunately it's a part of the risk when trading inplay, don't place bets you can't afford to lose.

100% Agree thats just Reckless, Trading isnt get high returns, the returns look after themselves if you have a proper Strategy in place and Plan maybe watch this Video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LZ02GNfdkXc&t=108s

[jamesedwards]

Unless you have a reason to think you have an edge over the market then every trade makes you a loss by an average of the cost of the spread. Therefore you're better off putting up a reduced stake and letting it ride rather than planning to exit for a partial loss.

[thepressure]

The problem is lower markets eg 2.5 / 3.5 have less time decay per minute so its not just a case of lowering the stakes.

I guess the question is why do Betfair block matches?

[jamesedwards]

The problem is lower markets eg 2.5 / 3.5 have less time decay per minute so its not just a case of lowering the stakes.

I guess the question is why do Betfair block matches?

Putting up a liability of £100 and planning to limit that liability to £50 through -EV exit will lose you more in the long term than just putting up £50 liability in the first place and letting it ride.

Betfair have nothing to gain from deliberately suspending markets. When a market remains suspended beyond a major event it will either be through manual error, or more likely, a loss of data feed from the match.

[Kai]

The problem is lower markets eg 2.5 / 3.5 have less time decay per minute

Not necessarily, as not all ticks are worth the same.

Basically, if a market decays at a "normal" rate, the prices are likely accurate relative to game state, meaning there is probably no edge. However, if the decay appears delayed or suppressed, value usually exists on the other side, and you've made a mistake. Ideally you only want to enter this type of trade when you spot a genuine misprice, so I don't see the point in applying a generic rule to win a fixed amount after a set number of minutes.

Those 30+ price ranges aren't very tradable or liquid either. You run a high risk of only getting matched when the price goes stale, which is bad. Even for simple scalping, the best market is the current Unders once the price drops below 3.0, traders usually focus there if they have fast pix/feeds.

[thepressure]

By that you mean o2.5 I believe right?

I guess i need to just acccept im going to have to go for lower markets, they are more liquid which does help just not exactly what i want.

thanks

[Kai]

Not really, by "current" Unders I mean whatever the active one is, based on how many goals the match has. For example, if it's still 0-0 in the 2nd half then that's the Under 0.5 that will be actively traded. Everyone will start piling on once it breaches 3.0, and that action will move to Under 1.5 market should a goal fly in, and so on...

Similar thing in the 1st half on the 1st half Unders.

[thepressure]

Not really, by "current" Unders I mean whatever the active one is, based on how many goals the match has. For example, if it's still 0-0 in the 2nd half then that's the Under 0.5 that will be actively traded. Everyone will start piling on once it breaches 3.0, and that action will move to Under 1.5 market should a goal fly in, and so on...

Similar thing in the 1st half on the 1st half Unders.

thanks for the response, the only issue i see here is though, if youre betting or laying o0.5 in the first half the movement is so slow, how can that be a postive thing if youre trying to bet the current state of the game but then take ages to get out as its a total loss if anything happens, obviously i know youre stake can be a lot smaller, but its absolute, more betting than trading?

[Kai]

the only issue i see here is though, if youre betting or laying o0.5 in the first half the movement is so slow, how can that be a postive thing if youre trying to bet the current state of the game but then take ages to get out as its a total loss if anything happens, obviously i know youre stake can be a lot smaller, but its absolute, more betting than trading?

I think you've misunderstood, that strategy is only for late in the 2nd half. If you want to get involved in the 1st half, there's the 1st half u0.5 market like I've said, but it's not as liquid.

And yes, it's absolute, your stakes are always lost if you catch a goal whilst trading the current unders market. But it doesn't stop people from doing it.

[thepressure]

Oh Sorry

So youre saying the strat is pick up very late in a game or a half where the unders or overs market does start moving pronto, as opposed to mid game etc....?

Thanks ill have a look at that

[Kai]

It's quite literally the main strategy that footy grinders have been executing for decades, and the reason why they're on a constant lookout for fast pix and feeds

Overall O/U is a wonderful market in many ways, mispriced often enough and even tradable when MO is not

You just have to work out the best execution for every market, in simplest terms, no matter what you bet on

But it does help when the concept itself has +EV, goes without saying

[thepressure]

Thanks sorry, i always thought when people said overs they were talking about match goals 2.5

I dont know why betting for or against last minute goals though is anymore EV than anything else?