they will no doubt put a lot of work into him in the coming weeks, what a jumper.
if they get el mondo to settle, gonna be hard to beat him. seemed to me it he was far too tired at the end, burnt far too much energy early on.
i would not wish to lay him next time out (assuming they can get him to settle).
Laying Short priced runners
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psycho040253
- Posts: 109
- Joined: Thu Mar 10, 2011 9:29 pm
Mugsgamemugsgame wrote:Sorry Lagos, missed the race. Just had a look back and a bit unlucky with Eradicate. The reasoning was sound, although races with only 3 or 4 runners are dangerous as I suppose their jumping may not come under much pressure, plus with less runners there is less other factors that come into play. i.e loose horses, bad jumps in front, interference etc.
Here is another angle; I advise anyone interested to have a look back on one of the video replays of this race.
Warwick 1:10. A 4 runner beginners chase. AP on the red hot fav El Mondo trading at around 1.65 as the race started. He was pulling very hard, although jumping well. I know from experience that an inexperienced horse jumping and pulling is a recipe for disaster. I couldn't believe that as he pulled clear (still pulling hard) he dropped to 1.11 with half the race left.
Towards the end of the race he started to run out of steam and by the last fence was 2.0+ when George Nympton came upsides. He fell at the last fence with a very tired fall.
Sincerely hope he is ok.
To me this was another stand out example of risk v reward.
A lay bet of less than 1.2 for an inexperienced horse, pulling and running green jumping fences was too good to pass up. To win in this sort of bet at this price you need a success rate of 2/5. Worth looking at.
When I was 'trading' short-priced horses, especially, in novice races, I lost. From reading the various posts on this thread, it looks as if I made the mistake of not being selective enough and laying too early in the race. I freely admit that you were right and I was wrong. It looks as if the selective laying of shorties in Novice races is a good strategy.
My apologies.
Psycho
sorry for necroposting this old thread. i read thro everything and would be interested to know if the premise of laying short priced faves is still relevant in todays' markets. I know the old adage that the more things change, the more they stay the same..., so just wondered if there was sage wisdom gained in the intervening period since this post first appeared.
I have to say that this is exactly one of the things you'd need to research for yourself for several reasons:
1. If someone knows there is value there then they are unlikely to tell you (they might even tell you the opposite).
2. If someone does in fact tell you that there is value there then everyone will know and it will reduce any value that exists once everyone exploits it.
3. If you research it yourself and find that there is value then you'll be one of the few to know and can take the profits while you can.
This is perhaps a cynical attitude, but is the reality of what you need to do to be successful at developing systematic strategies. It doesn't apply to this specific idea only. In general you need to research and develop edges and ideally not make them public knowledge. If I knew that laying short priced favourites in certain circumstances was profitable over the last 4 years then I'd count that as an edge and not give it away so easily.
Having said the above, the devil is always in the detail. There are often very minor things which will tip a non-profitable concept into a profitable one.
1. If someone knows there is value there then they are unlikely to tell you (they might even tell you the opposite).
2. If someone does in fact tell you that there is value there then everyone will know and it will reduce any value that exists once everyone exploits it.
3. If you research it yourself and find that there is value then you'll be one of the few to know and can take the profits while you can.
This is perhaps a cynical attitude, but is the reality of what you need to do to be successful at developing systematic strategies. It doesn't apply to this specific idea only. In general you need to research and develop edges and ideally not make them public knowledge. If I knew that laying short priced favourites in certain circumstances was profitable over the last 4 years then I'd count that as an edge and not give it away so easily.
Having said the above, the devil is always in the detail. There are often very minor things which will tip a non-profitable concept into a profitable one.
xitian - thanks for the reply. i do of course appreciate literally everything that you mention and likewise (other than a close and trusted collaboration), would be unlikely to divulge any game changing *secrets*. I guess i was more curious about the fact that the thread kinda just stopped on a minor cliffhanger 
- always one for a happy ending!!
will post conversely to what i discover
- always one for a happy ending!!will post conversely to what i discover
Get involved Jimibt ..............!
Mugs sold his sole but the rest of us are sipping the days second pina colada as we speak.
8 HORSES AT less than 2.50 today at 1pm .How many will win ? Or not trade bigger? The flat is well worth a look.Best wishes to you and Dallas for all the help you give on the auto.
Wheres that waiter gone.
Mugs sold his sole but the rest of us are sipping the days second pina colada as we speak.
8 HORSES AT less than 2.50 today at 1pm .How many will win ? Or not trade bigger? The flat is well worth a look.Best wishes to you and Dallas for all the help you give on the auto.
Wheres that waiter gone.
he's certainly not found his way here to (sometimes) sunny sw scotlandicarus121 wrote: Wheres that waiter gone.
I certainly will get involved and appreciate that little nugget of info regards #<2.5. it's all about finding little bits of info and making sense of them... thanks again (oh and regards auto, if i were a score of ONE, then Dallas's input is TOTALLY off the scale, he goes way above and beyond in a very altruistic way - send him your 3rd pina colada
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Crazyskier
- Posts: 1298
- Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm
He's a fisherman now?icarus121 wrote:Get involved Jimibt ..............!
Mugs sold his sole
Seriously what happened to Mugsgame?
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spreadbetting
- Posts: 3140
- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm
Think he went down the same route as those other pros badger, jack birkhead etc and set up a free web site to share his knowledge.
half jest, but totally serious, my re-invigouration of this thread was to discover what some of the stalwarts were up to but also to try and figure the level of attrition. I know I for one am walking a careful balance between both camps, so really wanted to know how mugsgame's take on trading ended (and as a frivolous aside, how the short priced runners fared ).
at the end of the day, this is a community (albeit transient), but i kinda like to know that folk are doing ok!!
).at the end of the day, this is a community (albeit transient), but i kinda like to know that folk are doing ok!!