Today's Horse Racing

The sport of kings.
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Morrid4
Posts: 51
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 8:05 pm

Gamble most certainly not landed in the 20:00 at Southwell. 1.16 at the off and traded 1.03!
StellaBot
Posts: 868
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:52 am

layed that post time
greened up for tidy sum

Used to think DOB was for backing only
But made very much more than lay risk
eightbo
Posts: 2377
Joined: Sun May 17, 2015 8:19 pm

Morrid4 wrote: ↑
Thu Oct 08, 2026 9:13 am
eightbo wrote: ↑
Thu Oct 08, 2026 3:16 am
What would be a good approach to define a max. stake size based on the specific race which is about to go in-play?
I was thinking some combination of Track + 1st Place Prize Money [win] — thoughts/ideas/suggestions?

I could calibrate based on the first 10% of the race for the remaining 90% but ideally i'd set the value @ the jump and have it fixed across the entire race
Track maybe but I would have thought volume and ideally liquidity in previous 10 mins would be better indicators than anything. Markets can trade differently at different times of the day/week but it doesn't always hold true. Clashes with the previous race on a Saturday being an obvious example.
I think the volume on the favourite and its overall impact on the rest of them (depending on your strategy) can also be key. A 1.7 fav getting a slow start is very different to 3 co favs trading around 4.5 and one of them is slow away.
good idea about Fav SP I'll factor it in, after some thought, this will get me most of the way there:
1) Avg. 1s market vol. increase [logged 60s to 15s before off time] → 2) factor in Fav SP to output a normalised value for use

GPS data track list would be a good 3) but the list would need updating which is my only hesitation in adding that

Today's Arab Hcap @ Bath is a good example — it had a tiny fraction of the rest of the cards 1+2 values but in-play was still pretty busy IP due to being a TPD track.  I did observe a marked reduction in avg. stake size in-play so ultimately i'll just run a min-max system to my stake size and use 1+2 above, should be about-right ty
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