Bookie's v Betfair odds

[psycho040253]

We appear to have a misunderstanding Mr Mugsgame, good sir. The point that I was making was this:

Provided that the bookie's odds are <= 4/1, the expected betfair odds can be derived from the bookie's odds using the appropriate formulae quoted in an earlier post.

What I've noticed is that if the actual odds fall below the expected odds, then, the Betfair odds will stabilise and appear to await for the next bookie's odds movement.

If the next bookie's odds movement is downwards, then the Betfair odds will begin to go down again.

However, if the bookie's odds don't move at all, then the Betfair odds will increase to a level which is close to the expected odds, given the bookie's odds.

I believe that the above creates trading opportunities on betfair.

What I wanted to know was: has anyone else seen this happen?

Hope this clarifies things.

Psycho

[psycho040253]

a

[JollyGreen]

Hi Psycho

I have noticed this many times and it can be quite fun if you're sat with a bunch of "non traders". I usually look at the screen of Betfair and then the TV and say "that has to move to 7/2 now". When it does they all look at you as if you have magic powers.

Sadly I don't!

Anyway you are correct in what you see IMHO but you always have to be careful in the delays between the two. Sometimes you can see a price go in opposite directions and then they reverse again. Many years ago the bookies would lead Betfair but these days Betfair leads the way. Another thing to remember is that some of the bigger on course bookies will open with a higher price because they don't have the liabilities of the shops or other on-line bookies. This can then cause a rush as some punters scramble for the bigger price and causes a strange move on the exchange.

HTH

JG

[psycho040253]

Hi Psycho

I have noticed this many times and it can be quite fun if you're sat with a bunch of "non traders". I usually look at the screen of Betfair and then the TV and say "that has to move to 7/2 now". When it does they all look at you as if you have magic powers.

Sadly I don't!

Anyway you are correct in what you see IMHO but you always have to be careful in the delays between the two. Sometimes you can see a price go in opposite directions and then they reverse again. Many years ago the bookies would lead Betfair but these days Betfair leads the way. Another thing to remember is that some of the bigger on course bookies will open with a higher price because they don't have the liabilities of the shops or other on-line bookies. This can then cause a rush as some punters scramble for the bigger price and causes a strange move on the exchange.

HTH

JG

In theory then, do you agree that it creates trading opportunities?

I'm a straight layer, not a trader. But, I'm now beginning to think that trading may create additional opportunities for me and was just checking to see what others thought first before taking the plunge.

Psycho

[JollyGreen]

Why not try it for a period and monitor your progress. You'll soon know if you're onto something.

[rubysglory]

However, sometimes the Betfair odds fall to as low as 3.85. This means that the bookie's odds ought to be 5/2 and not 3/1. ...................Has anyone else noticed this type of behaviour?
Psycho

I have noticed this as well psycho. I have often wondered if the larger backers, by predominately using betfair in such instances, are attempting to hold up the oncourse bookmaker SP price ?

rg

[dav3214]

One thing to consider is that the bookies price is related to the oncourse books who are offering different prices. So oncourse there can be eg 30% at 11/4, 70% at 3-1, I think that the befair price would be lower there than if it was 30% 100/30, 70% 3-1. Both would appear as 3-1 bookies price.

[psycho040253]

One thing to consider is that the bookies price is related to the oncourse books who are offering different prices. So oncourse there can be eg 30% at 11/4, 70% at 3-1, I think that the befair price would be lower there than if it was 30% 100/30, 70% 3-1. Both would appear as 3-1 bookies price.

Bl00dy good point. Well made.

I hadn't considered this.

Psycho