19/04/12 Ripon 3:55 - lay this favourite??

[icarus121]

Morning guys..

Bit surprised when logged on this morning to read the thread.Thanks JG for a green race,was a good race for me (not best) but ok.I was lucky enough to have read your post at 11.40 ish and started to lay from that point 3.10,i was out at 3.60/3.70 You were spot on with your prediction that at 4.0 would possibly be bet value ,well you were .10 out .

74.5 you are a numbers/probability guy i know ,as i am .I do listen to pundits on radio etc but will always revert back to numbers at the end of day and form my own opinion.If you dont already follow JOLLYS can i say synopsis of certain races ...YOU SHOULD .What agreat insight into the make up of races and the variables involved.We can all lay 1.01s and get or holidays paid for (by the way been 4 this week beat).I do hope one day i may know half of what both MUGSGAME and JOLLYGREEN do,then im sure ill be up grading from my blackpool weeknd..
HGD

[JollyGreen]

Hi Icarus

I like your posts, they always have a positive slant and make me . I always say it's better to smile than frown as it takes less muscles and energy.

When people ask me about horses, by this I mean friends and family, they do not understand the work involved. I gave a few tips to said persons for both Cheltenham and Aintree and there were a few decent priced winners. One of the people missed them one day so she said "Well what about this race?" I tried to explain how tricky it can be so she said "Well let me know some for tomorrow!"

The worst for that is my Father in law. If we're watching the TV and the racing happens to be on BBC or C4 he will stick a pin in the paper. If I volunteer an opinion and I'm wrong I get dog's abuse especially if his pinsticking approach finds a winner! This all came to a head one day when his brother together with his son were visiting and wanted to watch a race from Thirsk. We were all puzzled and then he revealed he owned a few horses; we all knew he had a dark side but that was not what we expected. Apparently a stable lad had told him a particular horse would win. He's like his sibling in that he loves to show off and put people down when possible. He turned to me and sarcastically asked "As a supposed expert, what do you think of its chances?" I said if they gave me 30 minutes I would take a look and give my opinion. I looked at the runners and did some quick research on them and it was weird that they would be so keen on this horse. He was bred for middle distances but was running in a sprint. The info was he was flying on the gallops and a real speed ball. I wanted to give an honest opinion but I didn't want to upset them. I need not have worried about the latter!

I told them I would be very surprised if it won but would be very happy for them if it did so. I had my fingers crossed when I said the bit about it winning! I gave them my theory that the horse was very likely to be outpaced. I had a sarcastic "well that shows what you know" and they went back to drinking.

When the race time came around they were well oiled and now their comments were more barbed. I bit my tongue and watched the race in silence. As they loaded the last horse into the stalls I had never wanted a horse to lose so badly in all my life. I didn't have a penny invested but I knew these muppets did.

They burst out of the stalls and this horse was quite quickly away. He was wearing headgear for the first time and this lit him up. The jeers started from the two brothers and the son who started by giving me the finger and saying "outpaced, what do you know". They were all laughing and jeering, it was actually disgraceful if I am honest but sadly that is what they're like. They hadn't travelled more than 100 yards and suddenly they were counting their winnings!

After about 1.5 furlongs however, the pack had swamped this horse and the jockey had to urge him along to keep up. He was now in the pack but as they approached 4f he was readily left behind. At the finish line he was nowhere to be seen and there was silence in the room. Inside my head I was jumping for joy and music was playing loudly It didn't finish last but it may as well have.

There was no apology just an excuse that the horse must have had a problem!

I walked out of the room and gave a big "Yes" when I was out of earshot! Drinking and gambling is a lethal combination but it showed their true colours!

[steven1976]

Keep them coming JG. Must take a good hour of your day just to write up your posts and Im sure you could be doing more with your time. Ylur thoughts are really appreciated by myself and Im sure many others who are both vocal and silent. So far your advice has been very profitable for me, so a big thanks. In general ill trade out but occassionally depending upon your write up ill just go for it.
Cheers
Ste

[CaerMyrddin]

On that story Jolly, I almost felt sorry for you! Well done not to play the revenge and give the finger trick back

When people ask me about horses, by this I mean friends and family, they do not understand the work involved.

Some of my friends don't understand what this all about at all. A competitive market. A really competitive market. Some of them think I'm gambling, others think it's some kind of game, but as anything in life that is worthy, all have to put great effort on it.

[74.5]

Morning guys..
If you dont already follow JOLLYS can i say synopsis of certain races ...YOU SHOULD .
HGD

Morning Icarus/JG

Before I begin,can I just say that I enjoy reading JG's posts immensely.Not only are they very informative,well researched and well written,they are a great hoot to read. I thank him for brightening up an otherwise dull and boring day when I'm waiting for my system to throw up a decent opportunity.

Mr.Icarus,good sir,you suggested that I follow the big guy's tips.Nay,Nay and thrice nay.

1.If JG hasn't already got a large band of followers, he soon will have because news of his heroic deeds will spread like wild fire.Some of JG's followers must already have considerably larger banks than they started out with.Larger banks and increased followers means that his tips will attract more money that they otherwise would have.That means less value.Value isn't an exact science.It can't be calculated and certainly not with any degree of precision.Also,it doesn't take a large change in odds to move the value from positive to negative.In addition,value is such that it isn't until after a number of bets have been placed that it is realised that what once did have positive value, has now moved into negative territory.In fairness to the big fella',he does state the odds which,in his opinion,have value.None-the-less,my statements stand.

2.All may not be what it appears to be in racing.I don't want to say any more on this particular issue lest I be hauled up in front of a magistrate.I'm sure that most of you catch my drift.I view JG's comments in this context.In a fairly run race,there is no doubt that JG's informative insights are more than correct. However .....

For the above reasons,I choose not to follow the big guy's tips.But,it isn't for the lack of wanting and believing.

I sincerely hope that JG continues to post.I for one really look forward to reading them.

I sincerely hope also that no one is put off following JG's tips.That is not the intention of this post.

My understanding is that this forum was set up to exchange information and views.That is what this post is intended to achieve - no more, no less.

Make of it what you will and have a successful day's racing.
74.5

[icarus121]

AFTERNOON ALL...

Busy day today then i guess.Dont you just love the flat!!!

74.5 I take on board what you say,and have the upmost respect but what i get and im sure many others get (please correct me if im wrong) is not really tips from the JOLLY but how to read a race.Yes,he names horses /prices but for me his posts (reading a race) and indeed the pointers are worth there weight in gold.I am finding myself alot more confident now when going into a race outwith my probability based strategies and having a go as they say,by backing or laying.

With that in mind ,ill put up a couple to be shot down in the earlier races.I no doubt have a long way to go but its a learning curve ,how steep ,well made a litte less by the big mans input and direction.

1.AYR 14.20 ...bet LEXIS BOY @2.34 already ,hope goes off in front and ill be out about 1.8

2.NEW 14.40 ...laid ALJAMEERA @ 2.02 ,im getting stuck into this one,(cant do alot of damage if it wins)but expect it to trade 50% bigger in run..



Anyways as i say there to be shot at ...


Have a great day all..


J

[74.5]

Icarus,good sir

Here's what I wrote in my previous post:

2.All may not be what it appears to be in racing.I don't want to say any more on this particular issue lest I be hauled up in front of a magistrate.I'm sure that most of you catch my drift.I view JG's comments in this context.In a fairly run race,there is no doubt that JG's informative insights are more than correct. However .....

Enough said?

I know that some people will feel that I'm having a pop at the big fella.I'm not.Nor am I at you.
74.5

[74.5]

AFTERNOON ALL...
1.AYR 14.20 ...bet LEXIS BOY @2.34 already ,hope goes off in front and ill be out about 1.8

2.NEW 14.40 ...laid ALJAMEERA @ 2.02 ,im getting stuck into this one,(cant do alot of damage if it wins)but expect it to trade 50% bigger in run..
J

Well done Icarus. 2 nice calls there.
74.5

[Iron]

2.All may not be what it appears to be in racing.I don't want to say any more on this particular issue lest I be hauled up in front of a magistrate.

I agree that all is not always as it appears. However, you can say, based on a very large sample of horses, that horses with particular form characteristics running on today's C&D will have odds of roughly x (which takes into account the fact that a certain percentage will be primed to do better or worse than their form suggests). That is possibly why the market is so accurate overall.

Jeff

[74.5]

Ferru
Absolutely correct.
The trick is to determine when the horse has been primed to win and when it hasn't.Solve that issue and you'll be minted.
74.5