What is the reason ATR live pics are so far behind?

The sport of kings.
PeterLe
Posts: 3727
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

Not just necessarily when the market has screwed up. A lot of in play traders spend time beforehand and have a plan in mind. There are some great tools available now such as pro form which can provide an indication of how a race can pan out.
Its like other forms of trading, you have to be better than average to be profitable but I think the best of the traders are unlikely to be the ones that turn up 2 mins before the race and start clicking? I bet if you took the top ten in play traders in the UK and found out what they were doing, I expect they would be the ones who put a lot of effort in.
I'm a real novice at this but it has certainly given me some ideas and I would like to try it again, but this time more prepared.
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Mr Wong (http://elitebet.blogspot.co.uk/) once wrote something along the lines that he knows every track in the country inside out, as well as where the TV cameras are situated and at what angles!

Mr Wong has also written that:

I am lucky to have a very good memory and so I just watch the evening replays on Racing UK or ATR's morning replays. This gives me a chance to spot things I may have missed or confirms the impressions that i have had on a particular horse during the afternoon. Any useful info usually stays with me once I have watched a replay.

The things I look for are whether a horse finished it's race strongly (then I can be confident to back it next time) , or perhaps got an easy lead,or weak finishers like Pressgang this afternoon(and was therefore flattered to win) etc.

For each race during the afternoon I will have a quick scan of the race and assess the 2 or 3 most likely contenders. If I can't remember their previous runs then I will usually watch a video of it on the RP or ATR websites.'


Jeff
PeterLe wrote: I bet if you took the top ten in play traders in the UK and found out what they were doing, I expect they would be the ones who put a lot of effort in.
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

The things an in-running player needs to know - http://elitebet.blogspot.co.uk/2008/11/ ... -know.html
andyfuller
Posts: 4619
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm

Ferru123 wrote:...what I struggle to understand his how people can know what the true price of a horse is at any given time. You're basically talking about handicapping based on instinct...

...Would I be correct in thinking that the way to profit in in-play running is when the market has clearly screwed up - for example, when a horse has gone odds on, but there are still other horses in the frame with a decent shout?

Jeff
You say you struggle to understand how people can know the true price, but then go on to say in effect that the way to profit is to know what the true price is.
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

No I don't, but I don't see your point anyway. :)

Jeff
andyfuller wrote:
You say you struggle to understand how people can know the true price, but then go on to say in effect that the way to profit is to know what the true price is.
andyfuller
Posts: 4619
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm

What did you mean when you said when the market has clearly screwed up?
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

I'm referring to market over-reactions: bubbles, basically, where the market gets over-excited about a particular horse for whatever reason and the price crashes to lower than it should be.

My guess is that an experienced in-play bettor doesn't need to know what a horse's true odds are to get a sense that it's odds are falling far out of proportion to its performance.

Jeff
andyfuller wrote:What did you mean when you said when the market has clearly screwed up?
andyfuller
Posts: 4619
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm

Surely in order to know if a market has over reacted etc you need to have a view as to what the true price should be or how can you know the market has over reacted?

You need some point of reference.
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Surely the BSP is that point of reference, given that it is well known to be an extremely accurate reflection of horses' chances of winning over a large number of horses.

Jeff
andyfuller wrote:Surely in order to know if a market has over reacted etc you need to have a view as to what the true price should be or how can you know the market has over reacted?

You need some point of reference.
andyfuller
Posts: 4619
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm

That would only act as a point of reference at the point in time at which it was formed, I.e. at the off. Once the race is underway it has little reflection on the current set of circumstances as things will have changed. For example 2 miles into a 3 mile race you could have fallen horses etc making the SP worthless as a point of reference as to what the prices should now be.
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Fair comment. :)

However, I maintain that markets frequently over-react, and I'd say that there are instances where an experienced horse racing enthusiast can tell that a horse is probably over- or under-priced, without knowing the horse's exactly true price.

The alternative is that said enthusiast does an unconscious calculation in a split second to work out the horse's true price, taking into account factors such as its previous form, its running style, the jockey's style, the horse's suitability to the current ground, the strength of horses who have already been taken out by fences, etc, etc. It's possible that some people have that ability - the human unconscious is extremely powerful. However, my bet is that people like Mr Wong make their living from laying horses that look to the uninitiated to be more or less home and hosed, causing the price to come in heavily, but which might (for example) struggle on the uphill gradient in the final run-in around the corner or which have a history of running out of gas in the closing stages of the race.

Jeff
chuck536
Posts: 205
Joined: Fri Aug 20, 2010 4:41 pm

you remind me of lydia hislop jeff :lol:
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

In a good way, a presume? :lol:

Jeff
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