how much is real money?

[superfrank]

think about it for a minute... the order matching algorithm was extended to do xm, what if it were extended further to take temporary positions in markets also? it wouldn't take a genius to turn it into the ultimate scalping bot because of the obvious advantages it would have over any trader/trader's bot.

i just think that an exchange should only match orders, anything more means that an exchange (sporting or financial) is no longer a true exchange but something quite different.

[pdupre1961]

What I think is totally wrong, is that BF are hoovering up money in markets before anybody else. That to me sounds like insider trading and shouldn't be allowed

I agree with LeTiss...sounds illegal.

[spreadbetting]

I dont agree. I also play at the front of.the market and all the volume being matched is not xm. If it was.xm then the orders still have to be filling in the market

Remember the majority of x-matching is done at entry and doesn't necessarily show on the exchange other than as matched volumes.

[haichless]

depends on the markets, horses yes, much is before the off, but dont be so blinkered (get it) lots of others markets behave in their own ways, which are not like the gg's

[steven1976]

Id be more pursuaded to think betfair are trading their own markets and being able to move the price short term as frank says which is why I think volume remains high. Constantly putting through small orders in the set up I use convinces me its not bots or xm.

Im with le tiss on them hoovering up the money at the end of games and suspensions. This to me is an easy way of trading for bf with the inplay delay. Im sure courtsiders take some of it some time but some golf events with not huge liquidity such Ive tried putting bets in even before the final putt is hit and presuming its unlikely someone experienced is flying to sri lanka for a low liquidity market, someone still manages to get their bets matched before me which would be risky for the amount that comes in and is matched if they are placing the order before the putt is hit (before my bet).

It would be interesting to know how much of their revenue in their accounts come from "trading". As for being illegal, if they do hoover up any money, Im sure they have it legally covered with some small print on the back of their xmas card or somewhere else people never look.

[freddy]

Because they are in effect just another bookmaker, they are unfortunately free to do more or less what they want.

It's been in their t & C for ages that you place bets with Betfair not with other punters. So they are free to match bets as they see fit.

they can hoover , queue jump , xm, and a million other things and there is not a thing anyone can do about it, other than stop using them of cause.

the fill rate problem has def got worst in the last six months i think, they have changed something and i don't think your position in the queue means much these day.

[superfrank]

that's exactly it freddy, i.e. BF are not a true exchange now.

imagine if Goldman Sachs operated the financial exchanges without any meaningful regulation!?!

[freddy]

Yeah it’s madness and quite a depressing time for Sports traders really.

Betfair are up to their usual tricks

Betdaq are about to be taken over by Ladbrokes which imo is a disaster

Smarkets have been exposed badly this week for closing winning accounts.

So all in all a proper fair and regulated betting exchange seems a long long way off at this time .

[superfrank]

So all in all a proper fair and regulated betting exchange seems a long long way off at this time .

+1

since i started this game things have got steadily worse and i can't seem them getting better.

i'm gonna devote much more time and effort to futures trading next year on the Eurex exchange (German) - the best value and fairest of the futures exchanges imho - and longer term financial trading. at least it's fair and properly regulated in the main.

[James1st]

That's a decent question that I've been scratching my head about as well. I'm suspicous that the matched bet volumes are steady but the overall fill rate is not at all what it used to be.

I have been plotting my own charts and collecting the associated data for a few years and certainly there has been a change this year in how the markets are behaving.

Indeed the market volumes are about steady over time but there is a distinct change in how bets are filled. However there may or may not be jiggery pokery going on. Certainly, according to my chart plotting, the markets are moving more....let me clarify.

In the past a largish sum was "eaten" through as the odds made their way from tick to tick whereas what appears to be happening now is that the odds are, more frequently, "moving away" from loaded positions. This means that the market appears more volatile intra plot making it difficult to get a largish order (or even an average one) filled in what used to appear as a series of smoothe bites. As soon as an order starts filling a big or average order, there are 2 things happening. Firstly the order isn't being filled with such big bites as it did in the past; instead its almost like its being nibbled more slowly. The second thing is that, after "X amount" of these smaller nibbles, the market will move away from the current odds irrespective of the prevailing direction, only to return to that point a few seconds later.

The net result is that "if the market can move elsewhere in the face of money" (it does this less where the market is full of large sums eg odds on), then it will. The fact that it also returns to the same point after moving away does mean that orders do get filled (hence the overall volumes being unaffected) but the micro market noise is sometimes deafening.

Now it could be that Betfair are at the front edge of this new matching process, or it could be that bots are just more sophisticated or it could be that smaller traders want to keep the market moving away from any decent bets/lays.

Although this isn't a complete answer to the question, it does explain what is happening rather than why.

James

[haichless]

somethings happening, let me give you an example.
the odds are currently 2.8 for the draw in football at say 60 mins gone, I put in a lay of 100 at 1.96 anticipating the usual time decline if the score stays the same, I am first in the queue, I check I am first in the queue by leaving the ladder and returning to see no other bets at the price, sure enough some of the lay gets matched but then the odds jump back up to 2.00 ish as traders hedge their postion, when the odds return to 1.96 I see other bets getting matched before the remainder of my 100???

to quote Stealers Wheel, stealers being very apt here "I dont know why I came her tonight, I got a feeling that something aint right"

[Iron]

but then the odds jump back up to 2.00 ish as traders hedge their postion, when the odds return to 1.96 I see other bets getting matched before the remainder of my 100???

Judging by the number of people who have reported similar experiences, I'd say it probably wasn't your imagination.

I think it would be good if someone could record a video of their trading, and then stick the bit where this happens on YouTube. I'd love to see how Betfair explain the queue jumping...

to quote Stealers Wheel, stealers being very apt here "I dont know why I came her tonight, I got a feeling that something aint right"

Tune!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DohRa9lsx0Q

Jeff

[Iron]

Now it could be that Betfair are at the front edge of this new matching process, or it could be that bots are just more sophisticated or it could be that smaller traders want to keep the market moving away from any decent bets/lays.

Have the changes been sudden on gradual?

If it's a case of the former, then that would suggest the dark hand of Betfair may have been at play, as the collective behaviour of market participants is unlikely to change overnight...

Jeff

[James1st]

somethings happening, let me give you an example.
the odds are currently 2.8 for the draw in football at say 60 mins gone, I put in a lay of 100 at 1.96 anticipating the usual time decline if the score stays the same, I am first in the queue, I check I am first in the queue by leaving the ladder and returning to see no other bets at the price, sure enough some of the lay gets matched but then the odds jump back up to 2.00 ish as traders hedge their postion, when the odds return to 1.96 I see other bets getting matched before the remainder of my 100???

to quote Stealers Wheel, stealers being very apt here "I dont know why I came her tonight, I got a feeling that something aint right"

Its an interesting case haichless but soccer is a different ball game (lol). Loved your quote.

I am not sure that the example is demonstrating the same behaviour though since it annotates a herd circumstance. Ever since some wise guy came up with the Lay the Draw strategy and it was quickly followed by a plethora of 70 minute exit strategies, getting a selection layed around that time became impossible. The lays were leapfrogging each other as more people wanted out at 70 mins. Gradually layers realised that they would have to get their bets in earlier, as early as say 60 mins (as you do) but the problem still exists with too many punters playing the same strategy.

Its not all bad news though, since what tends to happen is that only larger bets (if your bet stands out in the queue then it is larger), get leapfrogged. Smaller bets tend to get added to. To improve your chances its best to lay in smaller bites across a range of times, say 57 to 63 minutes.

Ferru; Last jump season was certainly ok and the best I can say is that it was a gradual change (with some leaps and bombers) since about May 2012. Euler reckons it may have been July when he noticed it (after the classics) and I wouldnt disagree.