Betfair chart / Betfair graph of the day

[Iron]

Where do you find the radio?

I sometimes use William Hill's radio service - http://news.williamhill.com/radio-fs/

Jeff

[switesh]

The 5:40 Mdn at Roscommon. Big early trend and late reversal.
Missed the early move, caught the latter.

[Euler]

I got tripped up by this!

[PeterLe]

Things have def changed in play over the last few weeks..Its echoing what is happening pre race mentioned by others on here. Ive seen posts on other forums too stating the same about in play. Its almost as if the inplay is being manipulated, I now it seems strange, but having watched tens of thousand of these over the last seven years, thats the best way of describing it...

Anyway, all is not lost, you can still find value if you look for it. The graph below is testament to that..
regards
Peter

Edit: I ran exactly the same algo on Betdaq and it had a small net loss (i did well on Betfair)
I just hope that as people find it impossible to use betfair for in play, they move over to betdaq..

[LeTiss]

Interesting stuff, Peter

So, what exactly are you insinuating?
And in what way are the 'in play' markets being manipulated

I hate to hear that, it worries me!

If 'in play' horse markets are being manipulated, then that's a slippery slope towards the results of the races being manipulated too!!

[PeterLe]

Its hard to explain really LeTiss, its almost as if the prices are held artificially high, naturally they will get it wrong on one horse each time.

I had confirmation some time back from betfair BDP that they hadn't altered the cross matching algorithm..
It got me wondering..suppose the following scenario..
Imagine Pre Play - betfair took a number of bets on a horse racing market. At the off they would have a clear view of what their risk is in the market for each selection. What would stop them taking the book in play, ie holding the prices at odds above other layers money and balancing their book on the fly ie in real time?
Its only recent these last couple of months so I think its something to do with the sports book?

[barlorca]

It is interesting viewing the archangels' postings on what is happening in the markets.

Do any of you have access to ATR or UK broadcasts?

Tracking a market with the race (allowing for transmission delays) often produces anomolies (the price what a horse should be at in relation to its position in the race), without any apparent reason being visible.

Any comments on this would be greatly appreciated.

[PeterLe]

I've probably watched less than a dozen races over the last six years or so and six of them have been the national
I sometimes watch the race on reply if something extraordinary has happened.

[steven1976]

It's not just holding prices up, on short favourites they will quite often do the reversal and hold the price down at the off. I guess it's when some small traders have not finished in the market and refuse to red up they move against the position aggressively to create the fear to panic and sell. For swing traders I believe you can actually use small stakes to get a market to where you see value.

Also Peter le have you thought about linking BF and BD for in play as there can be some real good arbs. You would obviously have to think about commission charges but it is quite easy to create the arbs at the off I believe.

What you explained happened on BD to me yesterday. I went in play with a 14 pound back open around 7.4. The market on BD put up around 800 quid lay at 11s just after the off and the market on BF was around 7s. When I touched the 800 with 20 more it came back in. If you had something on a spreadsheet monitoring the two markets I'm sure you could have quite comfortably setup a nice little in play arb.

[steven1976]

It's not just holding prices up, on short favourites they will quite often do the reversal and hold the price down at the off. I guess it's when some small traders have not finished in the market and refuse to red up they move against the position aggressively to create the fear to panic and sell. For swing traders I believe you can actually use small stakes to get a market to where you see value.

Also Peter le have you thought about linking BF and BD for in play as there can be some real good arbs. You would obviously have to think about commission charges but it is quite easy to create the arbs at the off I believe.

What you explained happened on BD to me yesterday. I went in play with a 14 pound back open around 7.4. The market on BD put up around 800 quid lay at 11s just after the off and the market on BF was around 7s. When I touched the 800 with 20 more it came back in. If you had something on a spreadsheet monitoring the two markets I'm sure you could have quite comfortably setup a nice little in play arb.

[jimrobo]

what worries me is that they are squaring off the sports book with the exchange internally and in effect sucking liquidity out of the exchange by hedging on the exchange but at no que limitations.

[PeterLe]

It's not just holding prices up, on short favourites they will quite often do the reversal and hold the price down at the off. I guess it's when some small traders have not finished in the market and refuse to red up they move against the position aggressively to create the fear to panic and sell. For swing traders I believe you can actually use small stakes to get a market to where you see value.

Also Peter le have you thought about linking BF and BD for in play as there can be some real good arbs. If you had something on a spreadsheet monitoring the two markets I'm sure you could have quite comfortably setup a nice little in play arb.

Hi Steven
Many years ago, it was possible to have Betangel/betfair and Betangel/Betdaq open on the desktop and dynamically link them, but Betfair stopped it.
regards
Peter

[steven1976]

I'm not technical and don't have a clue about excel, but not sure how Betfair could stop you taking data from two different api and putting them both into the same excel and taking advantage of any inefficeincies that can occur?

[steven1976]

I just read somewhere that they don't allow commercial software to link . Still with the know how, I'm sure it would be possible in this day and age.

[andyfuller]

I just read somewhere that they don't allow commercial software to link . Still with the know how, I'm sure it would be possible in this day and age.

Correct and you can be sure people are doing it but I doubt they will admit to it on an open forum

It has been done for a long time I am sure of that.