Could you post the Course, Runner Name, Race Type please (if you have that info)?steven1976 wrote:Chucking away good money all these backers.
Always worth tagging images with this info to find repeating & recognizable patterns.
Betfair chart / Betfair graph of the day
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
Hi Switesh,
Sorry I didn't record the info. I just took the screen shot at the end of the race of the graph.
ste
Sorry I didn't record the info. I just took the screen shot at the end of the race of the graph.
ste
In play has changed a lot in the last 12 months, although there are some good opportunities if you can spot them..LinusP wrote:Where have all the in-play layers gone? Silly prices straight away for the past week or is it just me?
the 18:30 at windsor tonight had four horses that traded at <1.51
Not a bad start, fairly easy trade to spot.
The 11:30 Mdn Hrd at Yarm. The 11k at 2.08 created a bit of doubt in my mind (some of it got matched), but soon as it vanished it provided an entry point.
The 11:30 Mdn Hrd at Yarm. The 11k at 2.08 created a bit of doubt in my mind (some of it got matched), but soon as it vanished it provided an entry point.
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The same runner (Dance For Georgie) runs today as the fav in the 2:10 Hcap at Muss.switesh wrote:Here's an interesting move that I believe was due to some strange money flashing about on Lay side at around the 5-4 min mark.
Then it turned against very rapidly.
Switesh
Just a general question. you've obviously put a lot of effort into the reading and prediction of pre race markets. have you drawn any conclusions as to whether it's possible to predict and anticipate moves?
I would be keen to hear any thoughts or observations you have have made along the way. I appreciate it may be still work in progress, but any observations thus far?
Thanks
regards
Peter
Just a general question. you've obviously put a lot of effort into the reading and prediction of pre race markets. have you drawn any conclusions as to whether it's possible to predict and anticipate moves?
I would be keen to hear any thoughts or observations you have have made along the way. I appreciate it may be still work in progress, but any observations thus far?
Thanks
regards
Peter
Hi Peter,
I can conclusively admit that I can't really predict the moves.
I should mention that I don't use (or care much) for form, jockey, tips, inside information etc.
People that know this information might be able to predict price moves.
Market conditions like price, volume, fill-rate, and volatility is what I work with. And I do like to understand the story behind certain moves.
But I know (and look for) turning points or factors in the market that have some clear influence on price, and these are much easier to spot and act upon.
These can be:
To offer a quote from Peter:
At the moment in my spare time I'm working on a simple Volatility Strategy that takes into account prevailing market conditions (such as volume, volatility) and creates a Bracket Trade setup. This effectively pre-defines your exit.
My aim is to simplify the decision making by pre-answering the following common questions:
This leaves only one question that the trader needs to answer: When to pull the trigger?
It's a work-in-progress but I'll post it on the forum once done (though it may take some while).
I can conclusively admit that I can't really predict the moves.
I should mention that I don't use (or care much) for form, jockey, tips, inside information etc.
People that know this information might be able to predict price moves.
Market conditions like price, volume, fill-rate, and volatility is what I work with. And I do like to understand the story behind certain moves.
But I know (and look for) turning points or factors in the market that have some clear influence on price, and these are much easier to spot and act upon.
These can be:
- - extreme tops or bottoms
- price shooting out too rapidly in one direction without any real money/volume behind it
- large open orders (gambles, spikes, late layer)
- glaring out-sized limit orders operating in and around LTP (like the one's I post in 'The Art of Misdirection' thread)
- flashing money (we saw examples of this in the Goodwood and Royal Ascot festival meetings I believe)
To offer a quote from Peter:
------------------------------------------------------Euler wrote:I tend to be a market watcher. I don't attempt to predict in advance what is happening, I just tend to read what I see if front of me and act on it. Simple, but very effective.
At the moment in my spare time I'm working on a simple Volatility Strategy that takes into account prevailing market conditions (such as volume, volatility) and creates a Bracket Trade setup. This effectively pre-defines your exit.
My aim is to simplify the decision making by pre-answering the following common questions:
- how much stake should I use?
how many ticks should I look for?
- Which direction
This leaves only one question that the trader needs to answer: When to pull the trigger?
It's a work-in-progress but I'll post it on the forum once done (though it may take some while).
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
I find it interesting how we tend to look at things in different ways. Peter and I are good friends and we usually sit and jabber on about "did you see that?" Or "look at the money driving this price out!"
I am more of a predictor where I try and use two different methods of predicting a market move.
1) Most of you know I had a misspent youth frequenting dark and smoky betting shops! That led me to study racing and form. I can use this to find horses which drift or steam. It is not that I am different, in fact it is because I am similar to other form students. I know if I see a problem in a price then others will see it too and this is likely to create a move. Sometimes you cannot always predict when it will happen and obviously you can still be wrong. The good thing is a wrong move means a small loss whereas the right move means a large(r) profit.
2) I am cursed with a stupid brain that seems to remember all sorts of crap. I am the annoying person who sits in front of a TV and answers the obscure quiz questions. Half the time I don't know why I have the answer but it comes out anyway. In the racing markets I can see the same sort of thing, it's a case of "I've seen this film before" and I can act on it. However, I have learned that the market often behaves in similar ways and throws up the same signals time and again. This allows me to be ready for a move. As in situation [1] sometimes you get it wrong and misread the signs or something happens that means the move doesn't happen i.e. another horse plays up etc but the loss and profit principle stays the same and it's a positive outcome.
So whilst like Peter I am a market watcher I am also trying to spot situations where I know more often than not a market move will occur. I just have to watch, make a mental note of the potential area for the move and be ready to pounce when it shows the signs of developing.
I have been doing this for a few years now but it is something that is new in those years. If I want back 5 years I can say hand on heart it didn't apply. It could also be that in another 2 years it may stop working. I see it as normal but I know when I am with other traders they are seeing it as abnormal or incorrect. So long as it keeps going my way I am going to run with it.
Now I know everyone is going to say "spill the beans" and share with us but you know I cannot do that. It is something you can spot and learn but you have to forget conventional analysis and you also have to forget over analysis as this will only distract you. The signs are there and if you watch long enough your brain will recognise them.
Why would I say I am cursed with this type of brain? Well I never get any peace. I cannot say I forgot your number or I forgot your birthday or our meeting. People know I rarely forget things so I always have to be on my mettle or they'll pounce.
My recent ill health allowed me to spot these signs, there is no magic move. I was bed ridden so I watched the markets and suddenly it became apparent. Yes, I may see it quicker than other due to my stupid brain but others see it too. When you spot it for the first time and see it in action you will be just like me "How on this little green earth have I missed that before?"
A quiet day for me as I am feeling
at the moment.
Good health to everyone, it is the most important thing you can possess!!
I am more of a predictor where I try and use two different methods of predicting a market move.
1) Most of you know I had a misspent youth frequenting dark and smoky betting shops! That led me to study racing and form. I can use this to find horses which drift or steam. It is not that I am different, in fact it is because I am similar to other form students. I know if I see a problem in a price then others will see it too and this is likely to create a move. Sometimes you cannot always predict when it will happen and obviously you can still be wrong. The good thing is a wrong move means a small loss whereas the right move means a large(r) profit.
2) I am cursed with a stupid brain that seems to remember all sorts of crap. I am the annoying person who sits in front of a TV and answers the obscure quiz questions. Half the time I don't know why I have the answer but it comes out anyway. In the racing markets I can see the same sort of thing, it's a case of "I've seen this film before" and I can act on it. However, I have learned that the market often behaves in similar ways and throws up the same signals time and again. This allows me to be ready for a move. As in situation [1] sometimes you get it wrong and misread the signs or something happens that means the move doesn't happen i.e. another horse plays up etc but the loss and profit principle stays the same and it's a positive outcome.
So whilst like Peter I am a market watcher I am also trying to spot situations where I know more often than not a market move will occur. I just have to watch, make a mental note of the potential area for the move and be ready to pounce when it shows the signs of developing.
I have been doing this for a few years now but it is something that is new in those years. If I want back 5 years I can say hand on heart it didn't apply. It could also be that in another 2 years it may stop working. I see it as normal but I know when I am with other traders they are seeing it as abnormal or incorrect. So long as it keeps going my way I am going to run with it.
Now I know everyone is going to say "spill the beans" and share with us but you know I cannot do that. It is something you can spot and learn but you have to forget conventional analysis and you also have to forget over analysis as this will only distract you. The signs are there and if you watch long enough your brain will recognise them.
Why would I say I am cursed with this type of brain? Well I never get any peace. I cannot say I forgot your number or I forgot your birthday or our meeting. People know I rarely forget things so I always have to be on my mettle or they'll pounce.
My recent ill health allowed me to spot these signs, there is no magic move. I was bed ridden so I watched the markets and suddenly it became apparent. Yes, I may see it quicker than other due to my stupid brain but others see it too. When you spot it for the first time and see it in action you will be just like me "How on this little green earth have I missed that before?"
A quiet day for me as I am feeling
at the moment.Good health to everyone, it is the most important thing you can possess!!
Hi Switesh
I think there are many people who has passed into the the Premium Charge bracket and beyond who will openly admit that they never know the direction a price is heading. Seems a bit of a paradox really, ie how can you be a successful trader when you dont know where the money is going, but it is true.
Equally I know of at least one person who I have corresponded with who has his own bespoke model that he uses for swing trading. This has taken him MANY years to perfect.
I have my own model/method that I use and if nothing else what I have found is that it provides an indication of the direction that I should be trading in (Often contrary to what the market tells me from a visual interpretation). Although there is a massive amount of calculations behind it, it merely indicates to me whether the market is going up or down. I found that the more information you have in front of you, the longer it takes your brain to interpret it, so I have made it as simple as possible and distilled it to a simple up down or level.
What I have found is that it helps from a psychological point view; it serves to strengthen my opinion and helps me trade better, ie it provides confidence, and I dont need to tell you how much the mental side and confidence is paramount to trading!
Although others may disagree, if it helps, what I have found is that the exit is harder to get right that the entry
Another point that may help you: Even when you create a model, it wont necessarily work on EVERY market. Ie you may create something that works tremendously well on range bound markets but not on very volatile markets where the odds are sub 2 for instance.
Anyway good luck ; keep posting, I enjoy reading them
regards
Peter
PS : Dave good to see your post, hope you are feeling a bit better
I think there are many people who has passed into the the Premium Charge bracket and beyond who will openly admit that they never know the direction a price is heading. Seems a bit of a paradox really, ie how can you be a successful trader when you dont know where the money is going, but it is true.
Equally I know of at least one person who I have corresponded with who has his own bespoke model that he uses for swing trading. This has taken him MANY years to perfect.
I have my own model/method that I use and if nothing else what I have found is that it provides an indication of the direction that I should be trading in (Often contrary to what the market tells me from a visual interpretation). Although there is a massive amount of calculations behind it, it merely indicates to me whether the market is going up or down. I found that the more information you have in front of you, the longer it takes your brain to interpret it, so I have made it as simple as possible and distilled it to a simple up down or level.
What I have found is that it helps from a psychological point view; it serves to strengthen my opinion and helps me trade better, ie it provides confidence, and I dont need to tell you how much the mental side and confidence is paramount to trading!
Although others may disagree, if it helps, what I have found is that the exit is harder to get right that the entry
Another point that may help you: Even when you create a model, it wont necessarily work on EVERY market. Ie you may create something that works tremendously well on range bound markets but not on very volatile markets where the odds are sub 2 for instance.
Anyway good luck ; keep posting, I enjoy reading them
regards
Peter
PS : Dave good to see your post, hope you are feeling a bit better
