Any Professional Betfair Bettors/Traders Here?

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Ethanol
Posts: 148
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 9:09 am

LinusP wrote: There is also a section in the moneysavingexpert forum thats handy for new offers.
I second this. It's also a great away of building a bank to use for trading.

The MSE lot are exceptionally risk averse, and can often spend ten minutes looking for a couple more pence profit on their matches. :lol: So you're in safe hands if you don't want to risk losing your capital!

There are also other ways of generating an income away from the MSE forum, such as from online casinos, gaming sites, bingo sites, bookie arbing, etc. Also, most of the offers which Betfair send out can be profited from. E.g. 25% refund on losses up to £100, etc.
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LeTiss
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Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

I'm surprised you're still struggling, Jeff

You talk a very good game, so you clearly have the ideas and the knowledge to succeed

I absolutely love all the psychological aspects of trading, I find it fascinating - it's the hurdle which trips so many people
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Thanks LeTiss.

I'd use an analogy with dieting.

I'm currently on an extremely effective diet. In my first two weeks, I lost just over a stone. However, since then, buoyed by my initial success, I took my foot off the pedal, and have put weight back on.

Losing weight is extremely simple, yet so many people fail to lose it and then keep it off. The reason is because whilst it's simple, it isn't easy. I'd say that it also explains partly why so many people fail at trading. In a way, profitable trading is like swimming upstream against human nature; you're fighting your own impulses, and sometimes you'll have to do stuff you find painful (like cutting out for a loss).

However, I will persevere. I'm confident that, with the right mental attitude, I can get to where I want to be.

If anyone hasn't read Mark Douglas's Trading In The Zone, I'd recommend it. I think he sums up some of the psychological challenges of trading perfectly.

Jeff
LeTiss 4pm wrote:I'm surprised you're still struggling, Jeff

You talk a very good game, so you clearly have the ideas and the knowledge to succeed

I absolutely love all the psychological aspects of trading, I find it fascinating - it's the hurdle which trips so many people
PeterLe
Posts: 3729
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

LeTiss 4pm wrote: I absolutely love all the psychological aspects of trading, I find it fascinating - it's the hurdle which trips so many people
I think you've hit the nail on the head there (and Jolly has just explained that on another post).

In the Blog world, you see so many new blogs with people show their P&L where they have used £2 stakes and produced a profit at the end of the day of £2.17, maybe trading 24 out of 26 races successfully..
The problem arises when you start using £200 stakes. the mechanics are just the same (ok it takes slightly longer to get filled etc)
It takes a great leap of faith in yourself to do that.

I remember the first time I started using £50 stakes, it was so nerve racking! Now I tend not to use less than £100 pre race (I know I can get in and out for a scratch if need be), unless its one of the All Weather courses on a Monday night! That comes with experience
I dont know if it helps, but the way I convinced myself as to the potential risks was to setup some auto trades and just let them go for the full day. I posted on here somewhere that even trading at random you will lose very little, so if you can just apply a little logic you can move into profitability. Once you have that knowledge that youre not going to lose much, its a big weight off your shoulders
There is a blog post by Peter somewhere where he entered the market at midday and traded out just before the off. Again, it broke even or thereabouts. That same system with some logic applied returned around 600 I recall.
It is a psychological thing, its easier said that done, but you have to acquire it somehow
regards
Peter

PS Jeff; I just started to reread that book, but I stopped after the second chapter. Why? Well it was starting to raise new questions in my head and I decided to stop before it altered something in my mind! Sometimes you can over complicate things.
A favorite quote of mine is "Good enough is good enough!"
andyfuller
Posts: 4619
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm

Ethanol wrote:The MSE lot are exceptionally risk averse, and can often spend ten minutes looking for a couple more pence profit on their matches. :lol: So you're in safe hands if you don't want to risk losing your capital!
Still do your own homework as this infamous case from MSE shows:

Thread 1 of 2: http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/sho ... p?t=386063

And

Thread 2 of 2: http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/sho ... p?t=386241
Ferru123 wrote: Losing weight is extremely simple, yet so many people fail to lose it and then keep it off. The reason is because whilst it's simple, it isn't easy.
Always question what you think is the answer. I would recommend you watch this recent series which among other things says the reason for failure isn't what you believe:

The Men Who Made Us Thin: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b038913v

Also just a general interesting series on several levels. Though not long left to watch it on iPlayer.
PeterLe wrote: I remember the first time I started using £50 stakes, it was so nerve racking!
I fully agree about this point - you really need to try and stop thinking about the bigger stakes, but still at the same time respect them. I at one stage got to the point where I stopped respecting the amounts I was using. I had no issues using them but I just wasn't respecting them - my solution was to go to a bank and get a pile of cash out and have it on my desk when I traded and count out the amounts I was using - making it 'real' again. Although you want to treat them just as numbers on the screen, at the same time imo you don't want to just treat them as numbers on a screen, if that makes sense.
PeterLe wrote:A favorite quote of mine is "Good enough is good enough!"
If it looks like a duck, and sounds like a duck, it is probably a duck.
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CaerMyrddin
Posts: 1271
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:47 am

Hi Jeff, sorry you haven't grasped it yet.

I started doing matched betting as well and it was a nice way to build up a bank and it was what eventually brought me to Betfair.

Also, if you are finding it difficult to be disciplined have you considered to automate (at least partially) your trading?
LinusP
Posts: 1918
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

Match betting isn't completely risk free but can be if you take it seriously. There is also another thread were a guy lost 10k when arbing due to betfair going down and not having enough funds elsewhere to cover the arb.
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kelpie
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Joined: Sun Dec 30, 2012 12:40 am

Yeah, but he was a muppet
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Ethanol
Posts: 148
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 9:09 am

LinusP wrote:Match betting isn't completely risk free but can be if you take it seriously. There is also another thread were a guy lost 10k when arbing due to betfair going down and not having enough funds elsewhere to cover the arb.
I just tried to do a quick search on MSE to find the relevant thread, but instead found this one:

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/sho ... ?t=1721479

Read that if you wish to learn from other people's mistakes!
Deeppockets
Posts: 24
Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2009 8:16 pm

As a matter of interest, what makes a professional trader? I notice Ferru123 and Zenyatta have Archangel Professional against their tag but both admit to still losing money long term.
LinusP
Posts: 1918
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

Ethanol wrote:
LinusP wrote:Match betting isn't completely risk free but can be if you take it seriously. There is also another thread were a guy lost 10k when arbing due to betfair going down and not having enough funds elsewhere to cover the arb.
I just tried to do a quick search on MSE to find the relevant thread, but instead found this one:

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/sho ... ?t=1721479

Read that if you wish to learn from other people's mistakes!
Here we go...

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/sho ... count=1079
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Ethanol
Posts: 148
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 9:09 am

Thanks! Expensive mistake, not helped by Betfair's hamster-powered server. :lol:
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Deeppockets wrote:I notice Ferru123 and Zenyatta have Archangel Professional against their tag but both admit to still losing money long term.
Archangel Professional is just a tag that you get when you've posted over a certain no of posts (I think 500). Sadly, it has no bearing on a trader's skill or success! :lol:

As for your question about what a pro is, I guess it's someone who makes their living from Betfair. :)

There are a few pros in the forum, but, as mentioned previously, they are small in number compared to the overall no of Betfair users. I think Betfair once said that 5% of their customers make £15,000 or over per year (although I could be wrong - can anyone verify that?).

Jeff
Iron
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Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

HOW TO BE A SLAVE - https://www.facebook.com/james.altucher ... 6599310636

Thought-provoking article...

I compared being a disciplined trader to losing weight earlier. This is from an interesting article by a guy who lost 288 lbs (http://markmanson.net/weight-loss):

'The trick is to stop looking outside yourself for the answer. Some new diet plan won’t do it for you if you won’t.

You have to find something to drive you, something that can ignite your inner fire, and then let the rest take care of itself. There will be boring days and there will be plateaus and there will be days when you don’t want to get off the couch. And the only way you can persevere through these moments is not by changing your diet plan or your workout routine; it’s by changing how you see yourself and how you feel about yourself.'


Jeff
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gutuami
Posts: 1858
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 4:06 pm

a few years ago I started playing table tennis as I was having problems with my back. And that was due to the sitting long hours in front of pc. Now I enjoy it a lot. It keeps me fit and in good condition. Of course with a bit of swimming and sauna from time to time. I already spent 500+ on equipment. For example a good tennis rubber costs ~40pounds and you need two of them every 3-4mounths. I even bought a ping pong robot. The interesting thing is you can see similarities between the tennis and trading. Progress, concentration, psychology it's all there. I recommend it to anybody.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzYtFLpJrQU
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