Champions League 2013/14

[Euler]

I group matches by league and competition and look at the long term average number of goals across the competition. I then forecast the total number of goals and produce the variation to the average goals. So you should end up with, over the course of the season, a pretty accurate forecast. Over a season I settle around 0 to 0.10 goals out on forecast.

But, of course, if football there is a wide variation, but the forecasts should tell you where to focus your attention.

[Euler]

Manchester United plane in 'frightening' mid-air near miss

http://www.express.co.uk/sport/football ... -near-miss

[Euler]

Goals ratings for this evenings matches, projected variance to long term average: -

Real Madrid vs. Galatasaray - 136%
Man City vs. Plzen - 132%
Juventus vs. FC Copenhagen - 128%
Paris St-G vs. Olympiakos - 114%
CSKA Moscow vs. B Munich - 114%
Shakhtar vs. Sociedad - 110%
Leverkusen vs. Man Utd - 102%
Anderlecht vs. Benfica - 98%

I have priced in 24 goals this evening.

[stevequal]

Peter, what is the average number of goals your percentage is calculated to?

[icarus121]

Overs looking good...24 Goals wont be far away.

Good work Peter..

[Euler]

Good performance from United

[LeTiss]

You can get 8folds with various bookies that equate to 100/1 on all matches having over 2.5 goals

If you like having an occasional little £5 per bet on these things, it's worth a go, because I see it happening at some stage

BOOOOOM!!!

Ok, I was a day late, but I had a tenner with Bet365 tonight - £750

[stevequal]

LeTiss, I just saw tonight's scores and the first thing, I thought I was your post. Great stuff.

[Euler]

Goals ratings for this evening's matches, projected variance to long term average. Ranked from most goals to least: -

B Munich vs. Man City - 130%
FC Copenhagen vs. Real Madrid - 128%
Sociedad vs. Leverkusen - 118%
Olympiakos vs. Anderlecht - 116%
Galatasaray vs. Juventus - 112%
Man Utd vs. Shakhtar - 110%
Benfica vs. Paris St-G - 108%
Plzen vs. CSKA Moscow - 106%

I have priced in 24 goals this evening.

[stevequal]

Thanks Peter.

Steve.

[icarus121]

Many Thanks

[Euler]

Galatasaraayarsrary vs Juve abandoned due to snow

[stevequal]

Galatasaraayarsrary vs Juve abandoned due to snow.

Will Betfair refund bets on this fixture?

[giulio2010]

Galatasaraayarsrary vs Juve abandoned due to snow.

Will Betfair refund bets on this fixture?

In this case, the money will no be refunded. Galat vs Juve will kick off in 2 hours and 45 minutes, starting from the 30th minute of the game!

[Euler]

The general rule is that they hold it over for a set period of time and keep the bets as they stand until the completion of the match. Can't remember the exact amount of time it stays open?