Rio 2014

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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woodhousejj
Posts: 47
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2013 11:19 pm

Hi,

Agreed - so dug out the previous 2 WC's group stage.Not sure how reliable:

2006 - 48 games, 11 draws, 5 - 0-0 draw

2002 - 48 games, 14 draws, 2 - 0-0 draw

John
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Euler
Posts: 26431
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm

Suarez injured
burdo77
Posts: 351
Joined: Sun Jun 09, 2013 4:13 am

Anyone here lay the winner of the WC for the top 8 chances or so and green up after the first round of matches?

I was thinking that the top teams wouldn't change much if they win, but will drift hugely if they loose the first match?
convoysur-2
Posts: 1110
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:00 am

Goldman Sachs Predicts the World Cup Winner
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/05/ ... up-winner/
puravida1
Posts: 4
Joined: Thu May 07, 2009 12:26 pm

By Goldman calculation Brazil's probability of winning the world cup is being under-estimated by a 'whopping' factor of two by the bookies!!

A 25% chance by Ladbrokes' reckoning versus 48.5% by Goldman's.

They present their case below through highlighting the under-estimated factors.

Back-to-Lay opp.?!

http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman- ... dds-2014-5
Golfer
Posts: 137
Joined: Fri Nov 04, 2011 10:45 pm

I would never take trade advice from GS!
burdo77
Posts: 351
Joined: Sun Jun 09, 2013 4:13 am

I've read a few articles relating to the fact that Brazil are too short, however there are many things that mathematician may not take into account, ie team spirit, I think you would be very brave to lay Brazil playing in their own country.
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Euler
Posts: 26431
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm

Betfair are going to have an 8 second inplay delay for the world cup.
Rinoa
Posts: 85
Joined: Fri Feb 08, 2013 7:38 pm

Chile are in a so called 'group of death' with Spain and the Netherlands.

The Chilean FA has made a patriotic advert comparing the heroics of the 70 miners stuck underground for 70 days to how their team will overcome insurmountable odds at the world cup.

Do they fear death? No siree.

Stirring stuff.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tmLmWiqSVS8
Michal
Posts: 41
Joined: Fri Feb 01, 2013 3:18 pm

I'm looking for odds from 2002 WC, O/U and CS markets at least, if somebody can point me to right direction or have data I would be really interested in that.
regards
giulio2010
Posts: 962
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2010 9:11 am

It was the year 1950, ( world cup archive ).
http://www.fifa.com/tournaments/archive ... index.html
Uruguay beat Brazil in the final!! enjoy the read.
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Euler
Posts: 26431
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm

Late night then!

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steven1976
Posts: 1744
Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am

Get your money on brazil! Maybe a bit of chinese whispers but i thought id share my customers views on Brazils chances and Brazil in General.


"Regarding the World Cup, people are really disappointed as we never see before..
We know all politicians never care to mass production, but, for the event, a lot of Brazilians could realize about the extreme no sense of them…
The last 13 years the President became very popular. He just cheat all of us long, long time..
But, as the most part in Brazil are very, very poor people, with poor education, they just keep same bad persons re-elected..
The conclusion, the bad politician of last 13 years, became our economy very weak.. People are without Healthy care, good School, a lot of violence on every street, and several others big problems..
People are without expectative.. On the other hand, the stadiums for soccer are under conforming “Fifa Standard”...

The cost of that is really amazing.. So, this bad politician which are driving our country crazy, took away what Brazilian most like: the enthusiasm with soccer’s game..
Yes, we are the “soccer country”, but, on this time, we are all very sad.
But, I think they will be little happier during each soccer game.. It will be at least 1 month with some entertainment..
The most difficult to understand is: in October, it will be elections.. And I think all will remains the same..
It is really sad to live with! I wish the opposition could have the chance to change some, but, the perspective is not so good!
Personally, I wish the soccer team loose very soon, because it will shake people and some perspective to change during the elections…
But, there are some rumors that the Brazilian team will won the World Cup this year - due agreement with Fifa and actually politicians..
Let’s see what next!"
Zenyatta
Posts: 1143
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2010 4:17 pm

I think the South American teams (Brazil and Argentina) must surely be very hard to beat. Home teams have always done very well at the world cup - they have the crowd/officials behind them and they know the local conditions.

That said, I do think Spain can win again. The Spanish team is surely one of the best teams of all-time, and they are still very strong. It would be unprecedented for Spain to win another trophy, but I think they are good value to pull it off.

In New Zealand, the local book-maker here is running a contest with a pot of 5, 000, 000 (5 million) for correctly picking the results (win/lose or draw) of every single match. Any way, I gave it a go, and I do have Spain to win the tournament.

In the unlikely event that it turns out I pick all the results prior to the final and I am the last live unit still in to win the 5 million, I would hope that I would be able to come to an arrangement with BetAngel to hedge that final match... I don't want to suffer the same fate as that Scoop 6 guy in the UK ('Escape To Glory') with 10 million down the gurgler in the last leg ;)
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CaerMyrddin
Posts: 1271
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:47 am

Good luck then!

Imho uncertainty is on high for this world cup. You can make a case on why most teams wont't win the WC, but in the end someone is going to get the trophy. This is why I'm looking for long odds outsiders that I think that will easily qualify for the next stage or that have difficult tasks to overcome but if they do it their price will compress and that in my view have better chances than the market suggest.

I agree that south american teams will be very hard to beat but can't see much value in Brazil and Argentina. Brazil miss a stronger attack (think Hulk might be a good surprise and not Neymar) and Argentina better defensive organization. Colombia without Falcao are much less impressive so I'm sticking with Uruguay (so we all agree on this one) and Chile. In terms of European teams I'm on Belgium (some time ago) and Russia (qualified easily, all their players play on Russia, so they are not well known for punters in general and have a world class coach, although being in the same group as Belgium is a minus).

I wish you all a great WC!
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