Rio 2014

[giulio2010]

The Teams I d like to see winning:
Italy 100%
second choices Portugal 60% vs Belgium 40%
The Teams I don't like to see winning:
Spain 60%,Germany 10%, Brazil 10%, England 10%, France 10%.
The Teams I think are going to win:
Brazil 35%, Spain 30%, Argentina 20%, Uruguay 10%, Germany 5%.

[MyOldGran]

Being a true England supporter I will follow that up with my own views:

Team I'd like to see win the tournament: England

Team I think will win the tournament: England

Teams I think have no chance at all:

Italy, France, Germany, USA, Scotland

The markets may not reflect my own in-depth research.

If England go out due to hand-balling cheats from South American countries then obviously the whole thing will have to be restarted without the offending player.

[burdo77]

Team I'd like to see win the tournament: England

Team I think will win the tournament: England

I hope you don't intend on making money with this prediction?

[giulio2010]

Team I'd like to see win the tournament: England

Team I think will win the tournament: England

I hope you don't intend on making money with this prediction?

The best way for supporters to make money is that we Italians, lay England..but we should never back Italy
and English, lay Italy..but you should never back England..
make sense?
good luck all...

[burdo77]

What are people's thoughts on laying messi for golden ball?

There are seven games played before Argentina hit the field, if any of the contenders score before arg hit the field surely messi will drift???

[giulio2010]

What are people's thoughts on laying messi for golden ball?

There are seven games played before Argentina hit the field, if any of the contenders score before arg hit the field surely messi will drift???

It's a good idea to look for this kind of laying opportunities, bare in mind an important game that could make the difference is played the day after...

[burdo77]

Neymar is equal fav, playing tom. If he scores what do we expect the prices to move to?

[hgodden]

Neymar is equal fav, playing tom. If he scores what do we expect the prices to move to?

According to the odds Neymar has a 40% chance of scoring today, so if he only gets one his odds will be unlikely to drop significantly.

Often in past World Cups you get a relatively unknown striker who scores a hattrick in one of the early group games and then suddenly becomes a contender

[giulio2010]

Neymar is equal fav, playing tom. If he scores what do we expect the prices to move to?

The market is already preparing for this kind of scenario. Money will probably push Neymar couple ticks before kick off and messi couple ticks drift before brazil kick off.
Generally 6 goals make you win the golden boot competition. Now if Neymar score one you can calculate the % quite quickly, if score 2, it will go quite down, even though it's just the 1st game..
If Balotelli o Rooney score 1 or 2 ofc you have to think a different way, don't expect the odds to drop 4/1 over night, which is very possible with Neymar or Messi if they score 2 on the 1st day...

[BJGardner]

Platini makes his move

[LeTiss]

Interestingly though, Platini openly backed Qatar

He suggested last week that he'd back them again in a re-vote, despite his name having been mentioned as one of the people who possibly financially benefitted from Qatar winning - all unproven of course!

However, I think it shows that Platini doesn't want to go against the bigger nations in Europe, as he'll probably lose his position within UEFA

[LeTiss]

You might find some value in Red Card markets

There are 64 matches during the World Cup and during the past 2 finals there have been 43 red cards - in 128 matches that's a 33% strike rate

Therefore, 1.50 should roughly be the price for NO Red Card, however most markets appear to be trading at 1.28-1.35

I'd consider laying NO Sending Offs at 1.30 and you should find that a winning strategy during the competition

[speakers]

You might find some value in Red Card markets

There are 64 matches during the World Cup and during the past 2 finals there have been 43 red cards - in 128 matches that's a 33% strike rate

Therefore, 1.50 should roughly be the price for NO Red Card, however most markets appear to be trading at 1.28-1.35

I'd consider laying NO Sending Offs at 1.30 and you should find that a winning strategy during the competition

And people say successful traders never offer actual trading advice on this forum. Whether one uses it or not, it's free information from your own work - very generous.

[Euler]

Pondering a lay on Brazil to see if they are chokers in their first game.

[speakers]

Would waiting a couple of minutes into the game be prudent? They're bound to come out like lunatics, aren't they?