Rio 2014

[Euler]

Uruguay only had two shots on target but scored both of them. England didn't seem a patch in terms of the penetration that they did with Italy. A strange match.

Well at least we went into the tournament with low expectations.

[Zenyatta]

Uruguay only had two shots on target but scored both of them. England didn't seem a patch in terms of the penetration that they did with Italy. A strange match.

Well at least we went into the tournament with low expectations.

Well, the match statistics do suggest that England actually played reasonably well in both matches, but luck just wasn't with them in strike, and a couple of defensive lapses cost them the games.

[giulio2010]

I was hoping so much for a draw at the end. The last night result complicated things for Italy as well. England can still qualify with 3 points and Italy could go home with 6 points.
Best scenario for both nations is: Italy to win both games and England to beat Costarica 3-0

[Euler]

So looking at the scenarios

Italy beat Costa Rica and go through. Italy field weakened team for their final match to save players for second round. Italy and Uruguay draw the final match. England are out.

Italy draw with Costa Rica, England are out but Costa Rica need to beat England to be sure of qualifying.

Italy lose to Costa Rica. Italy need a draw or win against Uruguay to be sure of qualifying. If England beat Costa rica. England are out.

So England need an Italian win against both Costa Rica and Uruguay and a heavy defeat of Costa Rica to qualify.

They are currently priced a 8.8 to qualify.

[LeTiss]

Having stayed up to watch Japan vs Greece, I'm not sure how the Greeks even qualified - terribly negative side, not pleasing on the eye at all

[LeTiss]

They are currently priced a 8.8 to qualify.

However, Italy and England are favourites to beat Costa Rica, plus Italy are currently priced at favourites to win the Uruguay match too

It's a long shot, but not beyond the realms of possibility

[Euler]

Having stayed up to watch Japan vs Greece, I'm not sure how the Greeks even qualified - terribly negative side, not pleasing on the eye at all

Perhaps that is where England went wrong?

[gazuty]

So looking at the scenarios

Italy beat Costa Rica and go through. Italy field weakened team for their final match to save players for second round. Italy and Uruguay draw the final match. England are out.

Italy draw with Costa Rica, England are out but Costa Rica need to beat England to be sure of qualifying.

Italy lose to Costa Rica. Italy need a draw or win against Uruguay to be sure of qualifying. If England beat Costa rica. England are out.

So England need an Italian win against both Costa Rica and Uruguay and a heavy defeat of Costa Rica to qualify.

They are currently priced a 8.8 to qualify.

8.8. That's a value lay. Nate says England probability is 4%. You need 25 to break even. Lay at 8.8. I certainly will.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/were ... -a-chance/

[LeTiss]

Are you offering 25 gazuty?
If so, I'll have $20 please!

BF are currently trading 1.54 Italy vs Costa Rica
England 1.64 vs Costa Rica
Italy 2.74 vs Uruguay

That doesn't equal a 25/1 treble, it's more like 6/1

Uruguay are currently -1 goal difference, England are -2. That means England & Uruguay cannot finish on the same points and same goal difference, England will definitely finish higher than them if those 2 results happen. Costa Rica are currently +2, a 1 goal defeat to Italy will mean England will qualify with a 2 goal victory (as long as Italy beat Uruguay of course), and I don't think beating Costa Rica by 2 is beyond them

[giulio2010]

Italy beat Costa Rica and go through. Italy field weakened team for their final match to save players for second round. Italy and Uruguay draw the final match. England are out.

Italy beat Costa Rica and DO NOT go through. Italy field the best team for their final match because even though having 6 hypothetical points, if they lost against Uruguay, with an heavy win against England, Costa rica will go through...

[gazuty]

Are you offering 25 gazuty?
If so, I'll have $20 please!

What are they now to progress, a bit of drift out to 9.6 for the lay. Still good enough for me. Jump in there. As I say, odds should be 25. England has a 4% chance of qualifying.

I'm not offering 25, because that is break even (or behind after commission). But under 10, I'm there all day.

[PeterLe]

Are you offering 25 gazuty?
If so, I'll have $20 please!

What are they now to progress, a bit of drift out to 9.6 for the lay. Still good enough for me. Jump in there. As I say, odds should be 25. England has a 4% chance of qualifying.

I'm not offering 25, because that is break even (or behind after commission). But under 10, I'm there all day.

What do you think the odds will be on England qualifying if Italy beat costa rica tonight? I think Italy will beat them...would that not be a better time to enter the market?

[gazuty]

Assuming Italy win. Italy is 40% to win. But Italy is a greater probability of being eliminated than Costa Rica.

I'm happy to lay at sub 10 something that should be 25. That happens to be the English soccer team today. On other days it is other things.

I think this thread is developing into a great example of patriotic delusion - which is why the odds are incorrect.

[Euler]

Tonight everybody in England will be shouting for Italy. We will all be honoury Italian fans.

[giulio2010]

Italy tonight will be playing a bit more defensive then the 1st half against England..I am still trying to figure out why but, we have to put faith to Prandelli.
I am italian but if we talk about values, laying Italy to qualify today may seem a good value bet. In the other hand if we won with good goal difference we can approach the 3rd game with less pressure.

Having all English supporting Italy tonight it will be something that I never heard in my life but, it is actually happening..