I see that Stewart is already looking at trading in running on St Nicholas Abbey - good luck...I don't think you'll need it.
I am a bit of a contrarian when it comes to most things and racing is no exception. Am I missing something here? Why on earth is St Nicholas Abbey trading at 2.20 for the 2000 Guineas. He's possibly going to make up into a very smart horse but unless he's grown a fifth leg over the winter I just can make no sense of the price. If you are a serious punter or just a form student who wants to use racing knowledge to make trading pay then you will probably want to have some "tissue" odds of your own. It's not tricky and provided you stick to your own rules and use your own interpretation long term then it should work for you.
Basically you sum up the chances of a horse based on, form, going, distance, breeding, size of field etc etc. You go through the list and decide if they are favourable or not. Then you put a tick in each box and the more ticks you find the stronger the chance/odds of your horse winning the race. You must remove yourself from hype and gossip and stick solely to what you know and what you can research. As good old Rafa Benitez would say is "I am talking about facts!"
Here are my thoughts and you can all shoot me later when the horse wins with its head in its chest!
Form = Looks useful and on official ratings he's about 6lb clear. However, horses can go both forwards and backwards from 2 to 3 years and his rivals may have improved in that period so that could make it much more competitive. He's won some good races but he's also beaten trees on other occasions.
Going = Well he's by Montjeu and his Grand Sire is Sadler's Wells. These horses were seen at their best with cut in the ground. The current going id Good to Firm so that is far from ideal.
Distance = He's bred to be a 1m4f horse but today he is running over 1m. When you couple this to the faster going it has to raise concerns that things may happen a bit too quickly. Now his class alone may well help him in this area but again there is some doubt. They are using Sea the Stars as a reference and saying he won the 2000 Guineas and then the Derby, Prix De Le Arc de Triomphe etc but he was a different horse. On the Sire of his breeding was a strong sprint influence and that usually means precocious talent at two. There is no great sprint influence* for St Nicholas Abbey.
* Horses with a strong sprint influence in their pedigree tend to develop and mature earlier than classically bred horses. Owners want a return on their purchase so sprint bred types prevail in the world of horse racing these days. I checked previous winners of the 2000 Guineas and many had a sprint influence in their pedigree. I cannot really find any such influence in the breeding of St Nicholas Abbey. I believe this is more of a Derby horse but if he fails today his price for the Derby will probably drift despite it being a better race for him!!
So if you look at just those three main factors you can find doubts in all of them. If there are doubts in all of these vital areas then how on earth can he 2.20 on Betfair and odds-on with some bookmakers?
As I said, he may win with his head in his chest but trust me, betting horses at this price in a race of this calibre is the quickest way to the poorhouse!!
Now admittedly a high percentage of people on here will not be betting but I just wanted to highlight how crazy the prices can be on these types of horses. We have a horse who may not be quick enough at 1m and may not enjoy the ground. He's not really bred for this distance and yet he's a crazy price. He ran against trees on his second start and you could've had a bigger price that day than he is today running against supposedly the best colts of their generation.
I couldn't back him with free money and I would urge anyone who is thinking they can get some free money to think again. There will be better 2.20 shots this year in races that are not half as competitive.
If he wins by half the track then good luck to him and his connections but he wouldn't carry a penny of my money!
I'd rather look at Canford Cliffs each way at around 12/1 - he may not quite get a mile but on this fast ground it's the best chance he will get.
