As a newbie to racing and trading I find it difficult to understand how a horse that is odds favourite often puts up such a dismal performance during the race. So I have embarked on building a racing calculator that I can use and maybe give me more of an insight. It is in the Beta stage and does not have all the variables plugged into it yet bet does give me an idea how fast a horse has previously run.
Looking at the first three at Ascot today and not wanting to put put myself forward as a tipster I have applied it to the first three races shown below in order of fastest runner of the horses listed (these deemed to be favourites) in the betting odds .
2:00
Firsty
Bam Bam Boom
Dark Flame
Midnight Cowboy
Whats the Scoop
2:35
Pinkie Brown
Adrien Du Pont
Berland
St Saviour
Ashoka
Oceane
3:10
Veauce de Sivola
Twelve Roses
Nexius
The attached screenshots show how I could have dutched the first two races using Bet365 odds last night on my own staking gadget.
Glyn
Ascot today
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convoysur-2
- Posts: 1110
- Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:00 am
you know that betangel has built in dutching
and that prices are better on betfair than the bookmakers ,right ??
and that prices are better on betfair than the bookmakers ,right ??
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convoysur-2
- Posts: 1110
- Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:00 am
Hi Atho
so its based on the fastest horse?
so do you use speed ratings for this and if so where do you take them from?
Thanks
Marc
so its based on the fastest horse?
so do you use speed ratings for this and if so where do you take them from?
Thanks
Marc
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Crazyskier
- Posts: 1298
- Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm
The more I try to find consistent Dutching strategies, the more I realise what a dark art it is.
Bizarrely I have had most (MONTHLY) success blindly dutching all horses with a BSP higher than the number of runners in that race. ie dutching every horse above 8s in an 8 runner race.
The rank outsiders that hit under 5s in play with surprising frequency allow my automation green up strategy to often turn a profit, even where the favourite or second favourite goes on to actually win.
As I said... a dark art...
Bizarrely I have had most (MONTHLY) success blindly dutching all horses with a BSP higher than the number of runners in that race. ie dutching every horse above 8s in an 8 runner race.
The rank outsiders that hit under 5s in play with surprising frequency allow my automation green up strategy to often turn a profit, even where the favourite or second favourite goes on to actually win.
As I said... a dark art...