Trading What I see !?

[smallplayer]

Fabulous thread with some great advice to us aspiring pre off horse traders. Thought I was doing ok on my journey, but there are things being mentioned here that I have never even considered tbh. So much to learn! I look forward to reading each day. Thanks to OP and all contributors.

[Kai]

Todays work at cutting losses, using small stakes!

Well done, trading very defensive is actually a great way to trade and it's relatively stress free, that's one way to nip a lot of the emotions in the bud, not to mention the bad trades. Letting winners run is probably the most difficult thing to do in trading, but that's a whole different topic, even a lot of hardcore pros can't consistently do it which tells you how difficult that is.

But forgot to mention something earlier when you complained about randomness in the market, there's an easy little exercise you could do that in my opinion can potentially have endlessly scaling benefits.

Just before a race starts you can capture the Betfair graphs and have a look at how many runners managed to find both their bottom and their ceiling at some point. And then you can look at how big the trading ranges were overall and so on. This might help with identifying longer term trends and getting a better feel for market behavioral patterns, something that every market has.

However, simply being aware of basic patterns doesn't mean you would be ready to actively trade them! Not at all, that's where the real work would only start, but it's not a bad starting place. Easy to say but try not to get overly excited when you spot various patterns, it's much easier to read a market when you're not actively involved in it, and you still need a few other skills to execute on those patterns.

[ShaunWhite]

8mins is crazy early!!!

Classic case of conflicting advice, I'd say 20-15mins out is a decent time for a new person to have a small trade or two.

Of course you'd say that you're a market maker

I'm not actually. That might change a tad from 1st Sept but not at the moment.

Sure it's gonna be a slow market, but it's also gonna be a super random market.

Can't agree, like all markets there's a randomness at scale that means blind trading comes out a wash but that randomness is made of brief periods of predictability. If it was random it would be untradable and it definately isn't.

You've been trading for 4 years, I think you've forgotten just how much info there is to process in realtime for a newcommer and then they have to make a decision based on that, a slower market gives people a little extra time to think. When people start it's not even about making a profit really, we know that takes months, it's just about understanding what they're seeing and what info is important and what isn't. I'm just suggesting you don't try and do that when it's hectic in the same way you don't trade in-running because it's too fast for you.

That said, I wouldn't recommend live trading (in any form) (at any time) until we've either been mentored, or done several out-sample backtests

You've lost the plot. I'd have thought 90%+ learn to trade without mentoring and probably 90%+ never do any data analysis.

[Kai]

I'd have thought 90%+ learn to trade without mentoring and probably 90%+ never do any data analysis.

Damn I keep getting baited back into this thread I definitely think so, the market is the only real mentor here, the only reason why the market loves to give you a proper spanking is because it's trying to flippin' teach you something Resisting it is as futile as it gets, and quite painful as you can imagine

But on a more serious note, it's a much deeper subject and others might disagree but yeah, I did notice a pattern with people around me that were either mentored or were gifted an edge etc, including a few friends that I gave a minor edge to start from, they all had a decent run for a few years but for the most part they all quit trading once their edge dried up. So it does make sense that they couldn't adapt and survive on their own for long because they shouldn't have been profitable in the first place without strong problem-solving skills, I know it sounds harsh but asking for too much advice is really not a good sign.

[ruthlessimon]

a slower market gives people a little extra time to think. When people start it's not even about making a profit really, we know that takes months, it's just about understanding what they're seeing and what info is important and what isn't. I'm just suggesting you don't try and do that when it's hectic in the same way you don't trade in-running because it's too fast for you.

The reason I wouldn't dare trade inplay is because I don't have a strategy for inplay. But Goat's defined a strategy, he's trying to trend trade. Imo, trend beginnings & volume arrival have a deep connection.

[jimibt]

.... Imo, trend beginnings & volume arrival have a deep connection.

yeah, BUT the secret is in pairing up a strong trend with volume before it has become so deeply established as to offer little value. when i review the PRE market data (files), I see this continually happen where a trend gets under way and then the volume starts to shift and before you know it, bang it's reversed. in some ways, waiting for those reversals after a strong start have more allure - imho

[ShaunWhite]

Imo, trend beginnings & volume arrival have a deep connection.

I just grabbed these off the screen but they're not unique, there's plenty of trending early.

Anyway I'm not talking about the ideal time to make money, just the ideal time for a new person to start to learn to read the market. You might be able to watch 4 ladders, 3 charts, and the tv pics/comments while the prices are a blur, but I'm not sure they can. It's like putting a learner driver on the M25.

Screenshot_6.png

This one even has a nice trend early then not when the money arrives.

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It's one pound for a five minute argument, but only eight pounds for a course of ten .......https://youtu.be/xpAvcGcEc0k?t=9

[ruthlessimon]

It's one pound for a five minute argument, but only eight pounds for a course of ten .......https://youtu.be/xpAvcGcEc0k?t=9

This is one of the best posts I've ever seen

Why would they be so desperate to take the worst price of the day

Horses are flesh and blood animals not just a statistic, if you're going to put a serious bet on a horse you want to see the whites of it's eyes before you hand the money over.

There's a bit of a myth that smart money arrives early, smart money arrives when there's as few variables left as possible. If you've punted on course you'll have seen the people holding the biggest wads will sometimes wait until the last few seconds

i.e. if swinging early - be prepared - cos the smart money probably isn't on yet

[ShaunWhite]

I'm slightly editing that bold bit to include Liam's comment about available volume. Yep big money can change the direction of market that's a given, I'm defiantly not suggesting putting money down an hour before then just sitting back. Maybe you can if you know how to price a horse but that's not order flow trading.

[goat68]

Well gave a concerted effort today and well..........rubbish!
5 wins: AVG £1.32
10 losses: AVG -£1.04
net: -£3.81

Given all the advice you guys have given, I saw no obscure hints in the markets at all, I only concluded:
- Trying to run winners is very hard, twice I was around +£1, only for it to turn on it's head...
- Weight of money on the ladder gives no clue at all!
- The balance of prices might not affect your horse! eg. Yarm 19:30, I thought the fav is going to go out, but 2ndfav looks like coming in, so i'll back that. What happened, fav went out, so did 2ndfav admittedly only slightly enough to hit my stop...!

I need to find an "edge"?!
I was thought of hoping cutting losses and trying to spot when a winner is going to run big was an edge... not convinced!
The problem with all these videos is they are obviously never going to say "Why?", as that would give the game away......!

Tomorrow's plan: I'm going to be a "contrarian trader" ! and go against what most of you say and try trading further out, maybe 30-20mins out. My theory being, the "Smart" money trades <10mins and I can't compete with those guys... so i'm going to play with the novices further out...!

[spreadbetting]

I think you need to stop jumping strategies after a day's trading in the belief that one day is representative of how the markets will trade.

Maybe spend the day watching the market rather than trading it, it's a lot easier to focus on how the market behaves when you're not trying to manage some random trade you've dropped in. You'd have learnt a lot more by doing that today and saved yourself £3.81.

[goat68]

I think you need to stop jumping strategies after a day's trading in the belief that one day is representative of how the markets will trade.

Maybe spend the day watching the market rather than trading it, it's a lot easier to focus on how the market behaves when you're not trying to manage some random trade you've dropped in. You'd have learnt a lot more by doing that today and saved yourself £3.81.

Yeah, you got a point there

[goat68]

So this video of Peter's is interesting: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zAED0_sOYs
This is very close to how my thought process went for the Yarmouth 19:30 today, where I also traded the 2nd fav based on the 1stfav behaviour and what was happening to the 3rdfav. Peter is obviously "narrating", so the what and why that he describes, I would hazzard a guess is somewhat different to what happened exactly when he was actually trading it. As I suspect Peter's "edge" is more than just what he "narrates"...?
What I quite like, although sometimes get annoyed by (because it doesn't work for me!!), is when Peter says, "Lets just pop a trade in here", very casual and random wording!?

[goat68]

So another interesting video, Peter's recent one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6eN7u326TI
and it's not so much the video that interests me, although it is good!, It's one of his replies to one of the comments:
" I think half the skill to be honest, is to think about what people are thinking about."
So this is what i've been trying to do, and I know i've not really got much experience to go on, so a bit stupid really! but the theory I was thinking is to work out what other traders are thinking and trading, and trader contrary to them, combined with a bit of trade support (crossover, round number, etc...) The problem I guess is not to try and think too smart, otherwise your trading against the winning Smart 5% and joining the losing 95% !!!!

[NickH]

So another interesting video, Peter's recent one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6eN7u326TI
and it's not so much the video that interests me, although it is good!, It's one of his replies to one of the comments:
" I think half the skill to be honest, is to think about what people are thinking about."
So this is what i've been trying to do, and I know i've not really got much experience to go on, so a bit stupid really! but the theory I was thinking is to work out what other traders are thinking and trading, and trader contrary to them, combined with a bit of trade support (crossover, round number, etc...) The problem I guess is not to try and think too smart, otherwise your trading against the winning Smart 5% and joining the losing 95% !!!!

Although I see what you mean, I think the main focus should be on what the market is showing you as a start and not overtrying too much. But in the same boat as you, so keep up the great job.