US Presidential Election 2020

[zweistein]

Smarkets and Matchbook have settled the market, but Betfair is still open and 1.05 available.

Do you perhaps know if their market reached 1.01 when they closed it?

[Archery1969]

And our Queen cannot be prosecuted although its unlikely she would break the law in the first place.

Yep, the royals are well known as a law abiding family

Well, if they ever get enough on Andrew then all he has to-do is leg it quick to wherever the queen is and not leave her side. I read something that states that no person can be arrested in the presence of the Queen without her permission. Assuming that there not trying to do her harm etc.

[wearthefoxhat]

What’s wrong with that ?

From what I have read he screwed over allot of businesses and banks. Currently he owes $1.3 billion in debts and that’s before what he owes the IRS.

He could very well end up in prison in the coming months and years. There is an agreement that the courts and IRS don’t go after sitting presidents. But they may well do after 20th January 2021.

You might be closer to the truth than you realise.

His business acumen, to some extent reminds me of Robert Maxwell. RM defaulted £50million in bank loans and raided the pension funds to shore up his business interests. Ended up by "falling off" his yacht on the same day he should have been at a meeting with the banks.

Trump strikes me as the same type of person, who has been made bankrupt at least 6 times and has paid less tax than Mrs Miggins the cleaner. This adds up to someone who will do almost anything to shaft someone, so lets see in the next few years how all this plays out...

Reading an article at the moment on how the IRS has been underfunded since 2016. This has led to most of the top investigators/accountants/legal teams leaving or being let go. Some believe that Trump and his team did this on purpose knowing that they wouldn't then be upto the task of investigating him properly. I wonder.

Joe Biden did say to DT before the results were known (in relation to his small tax bill), "I'm coming for you."

[Archery1969]

You might be closer to the truth than you realise.

His business acumen, to some extent reminds me of Robert Maxwell. RM defaulted £50million in bank loans and raided the pension funds to shore up his business interests. Ended up by "falling off" his yacht on the same day he should have been at a meeting with the banks.

Trump strikes me as the same type of person, who has been made bankrupt at least 6 times and has paid less tax than Mrs Miggins the cleaner. This adds up to someone who will do almost anything to shaft someone, so lets see in the next few years how all this plays out...

Reading an article at the moment on how the IRS has been underfunded since 2016. This has led to most of the top investigators/accountants/legal teams leaving or being let go. Some believe that Trump and his team did this on purpose knowing that they wouldn't then be upto the task of investigating him properly. I wonder.

Joe Biden did say to DT before the results were known (in relation to his small tax bill), "I'm coming for you."

Yeah, he probably will. However, if America needs to heal and come together then going after an ex president who got 70 million votes is probably not a very good idea. Trump could use it to stoke up the fire so to speak.

[Archery1969]

Why have the odds on Trump come in from 28 to 19.5 ?

[wearthefoxhat]

I have shifted some of my green back onto Trump @ 28s.

Only takes a court ruling in his favour Monday or Tuesday and his odds will come back in.

It’s really odd that you can still back Biden @ 1.05. Seems as though the market thinks there is going to be another twist to the saga.

What's a bit surprising is that Betfair say they would settle on the projected electoral college votes. How much more projection do they need?

settle.png

[Derek27]

And our Queen cannot be prosecuted although its unlikely she would break the law in the first place.

Although the Queen no longer drives, anyone who drives, even on private roads, can potentially fall fowl of the law.

[abgespaced]

Why have the odds on Trump come in from 28 to 19.5 ?

Because the election isn't over.

However, if America needs to heal and come together then going after an ex president who got 70 million votes is probably not a very good idea. Trump could use it to stoke up the fire so to speak.

Funny how the Dems relied entirely on demonising Trump for 4 years in order to get into the office. Now they say don't do it Do as i say not as I do. Not that it will make any difference what they say. The dems are already organising lynch mobs for Trump and his backers. So much for unity. Good luck though, they are up against half the country.

[Archery1969]

Why is there £600,000 sitting at 1.05 on Biden. WTF is going on ??????

[abgespaced]

The media is starting to report new cases of counting irregularities in Georgia. Technical issues with the recounting computers. Military ballots not counted. Missing ballots.

As long as the media continue to question Trump for not conceding, they are giving him massive leverage. People expect him to fight. He can cause a lot of trouble if he doesn't leave peacefully. What will one of the world best negotiators do? Perhaps agree to leave peacefully if, and only if, they conduct a full audit of the tally?

[jamesg46]

Why have the odds on Trump come in from 28 to 19.5 ?

Because the election isn't over.

People seem to think it is. Al Gore was a projected winner for 37 days. This could go on for some time, multiple re counts, multiple legal battles.

I really, really hope these (insert your opinion here) legal challenges, re counts, conspiracy theories or whatever the flavour is throw up some uncertainty because as far as I'm concerned I would love to trade this market for as long as possible.

[Derek27]

Why have the odds on Trump come in from 28 to 19.5 ?

Because the election isn't over.

However, if America needs to heal and come together then going after an ex president who got 70 million votes is probably not a very good idea. Trump could use it to stoke up the fire so to speak.

Funny how the Dems relied entirely on demonising Trump for 4 years in order to get into the office. Now they say don't do it Do as i say not as I do. Not that it will make any difference what they say. The dems are already organising lynch mobs for Trump and his backers. So much for unity. Good luck though, they are up against half the country.

Now that he's out of power there's no benefit from demonising him, besides enjoyment. Besides, he may be on the verge of a mental breakdown.

[Derek27]

Why have the odds on Trump come in from 28 to 19.5 ?

Because the election isn't over.

People seem to think it is. Al Gore was a projected winner for 37 days. This could go on for some time, multiple re counts, multiple legal battles.

I really, really hope these (insert your opinion here) legal challenges, re counts, conspiracy theories or whatever the flavour is throw up some uncertainty because as far as I'm concerned I would love to trade this market for as long as possible.

The rules suggest that once the result is projected the market can be settled. I think Betfair could and should have been clearer about when the winner will be declared given that Trump was talking about court long before election day.

[abgespaced]

I just think they are enjoying the billions and billions being matched on this market

[zweistein]

I believe it is a good strategy to lay democrats in Arizona and lay Trump to win the election. Even if Trump somehow manage to win Arizona, the odds on the election won't change as much as the market expects, too many things needs to go on right direction for Trump to even have a realistic chance ... So by my opinion this strategy is win/win situation