US Presidential Election 2020

[Zenyatta]

It's not often you can't see a 2/1 shot losing.

Trump is not remotely close to a 2/1 shot. The real odds are 9/1 or less.
To repeat: Biden has a lead in the popular vote of 8%-12% with essentially no undecided voters left.
This market is essentially free money if you bet the house on Biden.
It's basically the easiest money on Betfair I've ever seen.

[wearthefoxhat]

Hi guys. How will everyone be trading this on election day?

Is there a good time window anyone can recommend and/or some feed for when the results start coming through?

Tomorrow @ 10pm, Sky News start their live coverage throughout the night, so we might get to see a version of the swingometer in play.

[Trader Pat]

It's not often you can't see a 2/1 shot losing.

Trump is not remotely close to a 2/1 shot. The real odds are 9/1 or less.
To repeat: Biden has a lead in the popular vote of 8%-12% with essentially no undecided voters left.
This market is essentially free money if you bet the house on Biden.
It's basically the easiest money on Betfair I've ever seen.

Don't waste your breath

A lot of people are too entrenched in their biases to be able to look at this election critically and some are just giving opinions based on nothing other than gut feeling and how they want it to go. I wouldn't go as far as saying its easy money though but I see where you're coming from!

My work in the outright market has been done for a few weeks, I have a bigger green on Trump than I do for Biden but I'm leaning towards a blow out win for Biden that's why I shifted my attention to the Electoral College votes market.

[Derek27]

Glad to see there's nothing important in Australia on Wednesday morning.

[Naffman]

Glad to see there's nothing important in Australia on Wednesday morning.

Does Kilcoy mean nothing to you?

[Emmson]

It's not often you can't see a 2/1 shot losing.

Trump is not remotely close to a 2/1 shot. The real odds are 9/1 or less.
To repeat: Biden has a lead in the popular vote of 8%-12% with essentially no undecided voters left.
This market is essentially free money if you bet the house on Biden.
It's basically the easiest money on Betfair I've ever seen.

Zenyatta 4 years ago you posted this a few days out from the last one, so be careful with "free money" assertions.

viewtopic.php?f=49&t=12798&p=108286#p108286


"Don't waste your money on Trump, he has no chance of winning. He's 5-10% down in the popular vote - no politician in the history of the US has won from this position."

[eightbo]

Hi guys. How will everyone be trading this on election day?

Is there a good time window anyone can recommend and/or some feed for when the results start coming through?

Tomorrow @ 10pm, Sky News start their live coverage throughout the night, so we might get to see a version of the swingometer in play.

mil gracias zorro sombrero

[Trader Pat]

I'll watch it on CNN but I'm going to miss Fox!

Was great fun switching between the two in 2016. Despair to jubilation!

[Euler]

A lot of people are too entrenched in their biases to be able to look at this election critically and some are just giving opinions based on nothing other than gut feeling and how they want it to go.

It's really nice to see people thinking through things. The world seems increasingly like it's lurching to opinion and emotionally driven drivel most of the time. It takes real force to actually stop, take a step back and critical asses things.

I often feel like I'm on the only person doing it.

[firlandsfarm]

Zenyatta 4 years ago you posted this a few days out from the last one, so be careful with "free money" assertions.

viewtopic.php?f=49&t=12798&p=108286#p108286

"Don't waste your money on Trump, he has no chance of winning. He's 5-10% down in the popular vote - no politician in the history of the US has won from this position."

had a quick look, what fun ... it reminded me of all those people spouting "don't worry, Trump will never be President " only a few months after we would never vote to leave the EU!! I don't take much interest in USA politics but I would love him to do it again if only to give the LL's the finger.

[Trader Pat]

It's really nice to see people thinking through things. The world seems increasingly like it's lurching to opinion and emotionally driven drivel most of the time. It takes real force to actually stop, take a step back and critical asses things.

I often feel like I'm on the only person doing it.

If you don't you're ultimately fooling yourself right?

In the case of this election there is so much information and misinformation out there that you have to wade through a lot of crap to form an opinion based on logic. And you have to form it for yourself, practically every source out there is biased one way or the other so you have to take that into account when reading or listening to anything.

[Euler]

I agree. Lots of Polls journalists and the like are just chasing eyeballs, no critical analysis at all. You have to work really hard to see through it all.

[wearthefoxhat]

biden.jpg

[Zenyatta]

Zenyatta 4 years ago you posted this a few days out from the last one, so be careful with "free money" assertions.

viewtopic.php?f=49&t=12798&p=108286#p108286


"Don't waste your money on Trump, he has no chance of winning. He's 5-10% down in the popular vote - no politician in the history of the US has won from this position."

The polls actually weren't that far out in terns of the popular vote in the last day before the 2016 election. They predicted a Clinton win of 2-4% of popular vote, which is in fact, exactly what happened. Trump only won the presidency because he got very lucky in the electoral college.

Last time there were a lot of undecideds that unexpectedly swung to Trump in the final few days before elections, this time that's not the case.

The wild cards this time however, are the much higher voter turn-out , and the unusual circumstances of the pandemic and high volume of mail-in votes. But in my view, all these other factors favor Biden, suggesting that the final Biden winning margin might be even bigger than the 8-12 % landslide I'm suggesting.

[Derek27]

Zenyatta 4 years ago you posted this a few days out from the last one, so be careful with "free money" assertions.

viewtopic.php?f=49&t=12798&p=108286#p108286


"Don't waste your money on Trump, he has no chance of winning. He's 5-10% down in the popular vote - no politician in the history of the US has won from this position."

The polls actually weren't that far out in terns of the popular vote in the last day before the 2016 election. They predicted a Clinton win of 2-4% of popular vote, which is in fact, exactly what happened. Trump only won the presidency because he got very lucky in the electoral college.

Last time there were a lot of undecideds that unexpectedly swung to Trump in the final few days before elections, this time that's not the case.

The wild cards this time however, are the much higher voter turn-out , and the unusual circumstances of the pandemic and high volume of mail-in votes. But in my view, all these other factors favor Biden, suggesting that the final Biden winning margin might be even bigger than the 8-12 % landslide I'm suggesting.

There's nothing wrong with tipping a 5/1 loser and saying it was still value. But when you say something has no chance of winning, i.e. Clinton was a 1/50 chance you can't use luck as an excuse. Luck gets factored into any bet, even more so the shorter the price.