I have been following cricket for more than 6 months but still can not find a winning trading strategy in the game. I have tried many things. I know all the rules of cricket but I am wondering if any winning cricket trading strategy exists?
I would be more than happy if anyone can provide me with any references, articles, or existing bots to better understand cricket trading.
I just want to know how much would be the impact of wickets and boundaries on the volume and odds. And if backing or laying the match odds at the time of wicket and boundary would ever put my position on the green side.
Experts, please help.
Cricket Trading Bots/Strategies
There are so many strategies and some are very simple.
Have a look at @frogcrunchy - https://twitter.com/FrogCrunchy/status/ ... 4182739975
In addition - have a look at the section of my guidance - "In the beginning" - viewtopic.php?p=265873#p265873
Obviously I recommend you read the entirety of the guidance, many times and from time to time to keep yourself on the right path.
Have you followed those suggestions, written down each strategy? Tracked what happened, kept a diary in google and considered each win and loss? Are your losses at around the commission rate? ie, you are break even but for commission? Could you tweak or nudge it? Or are your losses much higher? Have you been picking up pennies in front of the steam roller? Taking single ticks but letting losses balloon to a point of enormous pain?
If you follow the strategies of the @frogcrunchy and the blind squirrell the biggest temptation will be to cut your profits and to let your losses run. Think about how to do the opposite.
Have a look at @frogcrunchy - https://twitter.com/FrogCrunchy/status/ ... 4182739975
In addition - have a look at the section of my guidance - "In the beginning" - viewtopic.php?p=265873#p265873
Obviously I recommend you read the entirety of the guidance, many times and from time to time to keep yourself on the right path.
Have you followed those suggestions, written down each strategy? Tracked what happened, kept a diary in google and considered each win and loss? Are your losses at around the commission rate? ie, you are break even but for commission? Could you tweak or nudge it? Or are your losses much higher? Have you been picking up pennies in front of the steam roller? Taking single ticks but letting losses balloon to a point of enormous pain?
If you follow the strategies of the @frogcrunchy and the blind squirrell the biggest temptation will be to cut your profits and to let your losses run. Think about how to do the opposite.
After spending 5 hours on Australia vs West Indies 3rd ODI; here I am more confused than before. Not sure what impact a wicket or a boundary has on WOM, moving average, volume. All of a sudden someone would show up and match 50 grand on the favourites.
One thing is for sure, humans/punters are not making these odds; algorithms are making these odds and someone out there has got a very fast feed of the ground data.
Now comes the question again.. How can I decide which way the market would move? How to know algorithms or punters are overreacting to a situation. How can betangel help me crack the code?
Please let me know if you have got any leads? I am very frustrated after spending 5 hours trying to understand the game impact on odds.
Just wondering are there any successful CRICKET traders out there?
Experts Please help!!
One thing is for sure, humans/punters are not making these odds; algorithms are making these odds and someone out there has got a very fast feed of the ground data.
Now comes the question again.. How can I decide which way the market would move? How to know algorithms or punters are overreacting to a situation. How can betangel help me crack the code?
Please let me know if you have got any leads? I am very frustrated after spending 5 hours trying to understand the game impact on odds.
Just wondering are there any successful CRICKET traders out there?
Experts Please help!!
Cricket as with any 2 team sport is based on a pretty simple starting formula.
Cricket is a little trickier.
Effectively the line sets the odds. If you know the odds, you know the line and every possible line odds.
Cricket, there isn't really a line, but that doesn't mean it isn't based off a theoretical line.
Eg. AFL.
Fav 1.50 means an expectation they win by 16.5 points. This is based on 95% of games ending within 2 STD deviations based on 38 points.
T20 I use 28.
1.50 therefore rates the fav a 12 run better team.
Say favs are batting first.
Check first innings runs, find out expected runs, closest to 2.00.
Say 172.
1.50 odds Say favs will score 172 and dogs 160 (12 run better/worse team).
From there it all comes down to how a team is tracking to achieve that target.
I have a spreadsheet (which is a guide, still working on it, wouldn't automate), which based on all entered games, gives me an expectation of total score at any point in the game based on current score.
It tells me the odds they should be based on the current score, and can really put in any scenario to give an indication of odds.
This formula works for all sport. Better with games like afl, rugby etc where score and time are the ultimate factors. Input the score and time left, you have true odds at every point and scenario in the game.
The point here though, is with cricket you need to dumb down the odds into what they mean (or maybe not dumb them down).
Yes, they mean a probability of a team winning.
But what they mean to me is 2 teams are rated and a total runs figure has been calculated for them both.
Once you know why the odds have declared a team a specific number of runs better than another team, it makes it far easier to calculate the odds they should be. For the first innings at least, all I am doing is comparing how the batting team is doing in comparison with their expected score.
Eg, 1.50 favs, 172 first innings expected score, half way through, you have tracking to make 148.
That puts the 12 runs worse than the other team, and should they score that, you would expect odds of around 3.00 at innings change. Work out how much time/resources are left, you have current odds).
Score first innings.
172 1.50
160 2.00
148 3.00
Will be a little different, as ground conditions reassessed and 1 team has removed scenarios for underperforming or overperforming, and the more under/over, the more weight will be put on reassessing batting conditions etc). But gives a good base.
Won't give away all my secrets, but start with this.
Will use my cells.
G1 team a
G2 team b
G3 data entry
G4 28 (for cricket)
G5 .00001
G6 999
G7 =normdist (g6, g3, g4, true) - normdist(g5, g3, g4, true)
G7 gives you %win.
G8 =1/g7
G9 =1/(1-g7)
G8 is fav odds
G9 is dog odds.
At game start, change g3 ( don't touch others) so that fav odds matches betfair.
You then have your line, expected score of both teams and can start calculating different end scores based on underperforming, overperforming etc.
Can use same to change to a dynamic live calc, but can't have everything for free.
Can also set up lines.
You know how bookakers allow you to set your line? This is the base formula they use.
Pick a sport. Say rugby.
Set up lines on spreadsheet. (+4.5 +6.5 etc)
Go to a bookmaker. Use all theirs to compare.
Now run the same formula. This time though, you are adding the line to g3.
Change g4 until all the lines match the bookmaker.
Rugby, should be around 16.
Do this for every sport.
Once you find the number, set it and forget. Copy the spreadsheet, name it rugby. Copy it name it NFL, do the same. Find the figure for g4 for whatever sport you wish. Set it and forget. You only need to do this once for a new sport to find the number for that sport.
You now know the odds for every possible line on every game.
For cricket, you could really do this to simulate any score to use on innings runs or expected odds.
There is no set rule for wickets as it could really be a benefit to a batting team to lose a wicket. Ultimately, it all comes down to what the score will be at end of innings.
Hope this helps.
Cricket is a little trickier.
Effectively the line sets the odds. If you know the odds, you know the line and every possible line odds.
Cricket, there isn't really a line, but that doesn't mean it isn't based off a theoretical line.
Eg. AFL.
Fav 1.50 means an expectation they win by 16.5 points. This is based on 95% of games ending within 2 STD deviations based on 38 points.
T20 I use 28.
1.50 therefore rates the fav a 12 run better team.
Say favs are batting first.
Check first innings runs, find out expected runs, closest to 2.00.
Say 172.
1.50 odds Say favs will score 172 and dogs 160 (12 run better/worse team).
From there it all comes down to how a team is tracking to achieve that target.
I have a spreadsheet (which is a guide, still working on it, wouldn't automate), which based on all entered games, gives me an expectation of total score at any point in the game based on current score.
It tells me the odds they should be based on the current score, and can really put in any scenario to give an indication of odds.
This formula works for all sport. Better with games like afl, rugby etc where score and time are the ultimate factors. Input the score and time left, you have true odds at every point and scenario in the game.
The point here though, is with cricket you need to dumb down the odds into what they mean (or maybe not dumb them down).
Yes, they mean a probability of a team winning.
But what they mean to me is 2 teams are rated and a total runs figure has been calculated for them both.
Once you know why the odds have declared a team a specific number of runs better than another team, it makes it far easier to calculate the odds they should be. For the first innings at least, all I am doing is comparing how the batting team is doing in comparison with their expected score.
Eg, 1.50 favs, 172 first innings expected score, half way through, you have tracking to make 148.
That puts the 12 runs worse than the other team, and should they score that, you would expect odds of around 3.00 at innings change. Work out how much time/resources are left, you have current odds).
Score first innings.
172 1.50
160 2.00
148 3.00
Will be a little different, as ground conditions reassessed and 1 team has removed scenarios for underperforming or overperforming, and the more under/over, the more weight will be put on reassessing batting conditions etc). But gives a good base.
Won't give away all my secrets, but start with this.
Will use my cells.
G1 team a
G2 team b
G3 data entry
G4 28 (for cricket)
G5 .00001
G6 999
G7 =normdist (g6, g3, g4, true) - normdist(g5, g3, g4, true)
G7 gives you %win.
G8 =1/g7
G9 =1/(1-g7)
G8 is fav odds
G9 is dog odds.
At game start, change g3 ( don't touch others) so that fav odds matches betfair.
You then have your line, expected score of both teams and can start calculating different end scores based on underperforming, overperforming etc.
Can use same to change to a dynamic live calc, but can't have everything for free.
Can also set up lines.
You know how bookakers allow you to set your line? This is the base formula they use.
Pick a sport. Say rugby.
Set up lines on spreadsheet. (+4.5 +6.5 etc)
Go to a bookmaker. Use all theirs to compare.
Now run the same formula. This time though, you are adding the line to g3.
Change g4 until all the lines match the bookmaker.
Rugby, should be around 16.
Do this for every sport.
Once you find the number, set it and forget. Copy the spreadsheet, name it rugby. Copy it name it NFL, do the same. Find the figure for g4 for whatever sport you wish. Set it and forget. You only need to do this once for a new sport to find the number for that sport.
You now know the odds for every possible line on every game.
For cricket, you could really do this to simulate any score to use on innings runs or expected odds.
There is no set rule for wickets as it could really be a benefit to a batting team to lose a wicket. Ultimately, it all comes down to what the score will be at end of innings.
Hope this helps.
