US Presidential Election 2020

[jamesg46]

I'm gonna have the market page open all night just to prove to myself I don't have to trade anything that's in front of me.

I've got the markets open & im not sure I'll trade them, probably not a good idea considering I've got a stock of beers. Probably wake up with an "L" print on my forehead off of the keyboard and a red screen

[Derek27]

£333M, Betfair must make a packet out of this!

[jamesedwards]

Been crunching stats and my excel says a Biden win is an almost certainty. So why is he still 1.48?

[london_terrier]

Been crunching stats and my excel says a Biden win is an almost certainty. So why is he still 1.48?

Crunching stats on events that haven't happened yet, and it's a certainty?

[Derek27]

Been crunching stats and my excel says a Biden win is an almost certainty. So why is he still 1.48?

My tennis spreadsheet often produced a 1.03 chance when it was trading at 1.8. There are always two possibilities in these instances. Either a flawed algorithm or the GIGO factor.

[jamesedwards]

Been crunching stats and my excel says a Biden win is an almost certainty. So why is he still 1.48?

Crunching stats on events that haven't happened yet, and it's a certainty?

You miss-quoted me leaving out a very important word.

It can be all boiled down to the results of a very small handful of important swing states. Most of these are opinion-polling significant Biden leads. Biden needs to win just a couple whereas Trump needs almost all of them. All my green has just shifted onto Biden.

[london_terrier]

Been crunching stats and my excel says a Biden win is an almost certainty. So why is he still 1.48?

Crunching stats on events that haven't happened yet, and it's a certainty?

You miss-quoted me leaving out a very important word.

It can be all boiled down to the results of a very small handful of important swing states. Most of these are opinion-polling significant Biden leads. Biden needs to win just a couple whereas Trump needs almost all of them. All my green has just shifted onto Biden.

I hope your post ages well. Good luck!

[Trader Pat]

Good luck fellas!

Hope you all have a nice green book when this is over

[jamesg46]

Been crunching stats and my excel says a Biden win is an almost certainty. So why is he still 1.48?

Crunching stats on events that haven't happened yet, and it's a certainty?

You miss-quoted me leaving out a very important word.

It can be all boiled down to the results of a very small handful of important swing states. Most of these are opinion-polling significant Biden leads. Biden needs to win just a couple whereas Trump needs almost all of them. All my green has just shifted onto Biden.

You may get a better price if you hold off a little.

[jamesg46]

Good luck fellas!

Hope you all have a nice green book when this is over

Good luck to you too TraderPat, not sure if you're trading it so my good luck to you may be irrelevant with your green already.

[Kai]

I'm gonna have the market page open all night just to prove to myself I don't have to trade anything that's in front of me.

Same. I actually do some of my best trading whilst afk.

Godspeed gentlemen.

[Trader Pat]

Good luck fellas!

Hope you all have a nice green book when this is over

Good luck to you too TraderPat, not sure if you're trading it so my good luck to you may be irrelevant with your green already.

Focusing on the Senate race and Electoral College markets, pretty much done with the Outright market unless Trump trades odds on

[Dallas]

Good luck to everyone actively trading this bonkers market tonight

[rik]

Been crunching stats and my excel says a Biden win is an almost certainty. So why is he still 1.48?

Crunching stats on events that haven't happened yet, and it's a certainty?

You miss-quoted me leaving out a very important word.

It can be all boiled down to the results of a very small handful of important swing states. Most of these are opinion-polling significant Biden leads. Biden needs to win just a couple whereas Trump needs almost all of them. All my green has just shifted onto Biden.

i guess if polls are wrong 5% bidens way on one state they are more likely to be in bidens way in another state as well. youd have to the few guys that telling pollsters they are undecided more of them would vote trump

[Derek27]

If Trump wins I don't think I'll have the stomach (or a big enough sick bucket) to watch his victory speech.