US Presidential Election 2020

[rik]

the commentator saying trump would need to hit 10 "hail marys" as would need to win almost all of the swings states but surely if hes winning a state thats 20-80 or say 4-5% behind in the polling hes strong favourite to win anything thats 50/50 on the betting or 1-2% behind in the polling etc so its more about if and how wrong polling has it in general even will be differences state by state

[rik]

any idea which tv channels or media outlets are likely to have the fastest updates on results coming out? bbc tv/radio any good or better to watch an american channel?

[Archery1969]

The polls got it wrong last time due to a flaw in their calculations. They have since corrected that. Biden wins this hands down.

[rik]

The polls got it wrong last time due to a flaw in their calculations. They have since corrected that. Biden wins this hands down.

how does it work do they just add a percentage they were wrong last time around?
trump is even more controversial this time around amount of people not wanting to admit supporting him might be even bigger

[Derek27]

the commentator saying trump would need...

Commentator? You need to remember what sport you're trading.

[Derek27]

I'm gonna have the market page open all night just to prove to myself I don't have to trade anything that's in front of me.

Expecting the market to move when the results start coming in but I'm already wondering how much I could have won if I was scalping for the last hour.

[jamesg46]

I'm gonna have the market page open all night just to prove to myself I don't have to trade anything that's in front of me.

Expecting the market to move when the results start coming in but I'm already wondering how much I could have won if I was scalping for the last hour.

Already all over it, Biden is scalping heaven, some nice sized bets hitting the market frequently.

[Archery1969]

The polls got it wrong last time due to a flaw in their calculations. They have since corrected that. Biden wins this hands down.

how does it work do they just add a percentage they were wrong last time around?
trump is even more controversial this time around amount of people not wanting to admit supporting him might be even bigger

No, the calculation model they used last time falsely accounted for how non educated/degree level voters were likely to vote. Believe it or not there are allot of them in the USA. It assumed they would vote for a bog standard politician and not a non politician. Now the polls should be much more accurate on how Americans are likely to vote.

[Derek27]

I'm gonna have the market page open all night just to prove to myself I don't have to trade anything that's in front of me.

Expecting the market to move when the results start coming in but I'm already wondering how much I could have won if I was scalping for the last hour.

Already all over it, Biden is scalping heaven, some nice sized bets hitting the market frequently.

Fuck what I said about proving I don't have to trade whatever's in front of me.

[Vladimir CC]

trump wins kentucky

[jamesg46]

Expecting the market to move when the results start coming in but I'm already wondering how much I could have won if I was scalping for the last hour.

Already all over it, Biden is scalping heaven, some nice sized bets hitting the market frequently.

Fuck what I said about proving I don't have to trade whatever's in front of me.

You cant ignore 10ks 2ks 5ks hitting the market and being easily absorbed.

[rik]

The polls got it wrong last time due to a flaw in their calculations. They have since corrected that. Biden wins this hands down.

how does it work do they just add a percentage they were wrong last time around?
trump is even more controversial this time around amount of people not wanting to admit supporting him might be even bigger

No, the calculation model they used last time falsely accounted for how non educated/degree level voters were likely to vote. Believe it or not there are allot of them in the USA. It assumed they would vote for a bog standard politician and not a non politician. Now the polls should be much more accurate on how Americans are likely to vote.

arent most polls just asking a couple thousand people who they believe represent the average/cross section of the population?

[jamesedwards]

Kentucky: Trump vote dropped from 75% to 68%. It's as good as over, surely?

[jamesg46]

Expecting the market to move when the results start coming in but I'm already wondering how much I could have won if I was scalping for the last hour.

Already all over it, Biden is scalping heaven, some nice sized bets hitting the market frequently.

Fuck what I said about proving I don't have to trade whatever's in front of me.

1.47 & 1.48 rinse and repeat... Good battle atm.

[Archery1969]

Very early. But interesting.