It looks like a good read that and may be able to apply it to my current strategy. The reason I have it set to 3 ticks above is simply a safety feature of getting matched. At my lower stakes I'm currently using, it isn't a problem because it gets matched at the current price regardless but when my stakes increase it may get matched a few ticks above what I want so it's at that point I'd need to decide whether I want to use lower stakes or take a worse price, I'd have to make a decision on which returns higher profits.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Sun Sep 24, 2023 6:06 pm....an example of an analysis-free strategy (pdf link top right). And one that hightlights the problem with bookies again too in it's conclusion.
https://arxiv.org/abs/1710.02824
But to summarise that paper and relate it to the exchange, plug-in your bookie price feed (or maybe 100+ bookies from someone like https://www.lsports.eu/oddservice/), average it, add a margin, offer on the exchange. Let's face it, your analysis won't be better than their combined wisdom.
Been researching value betting most of the day so understand how it works and how to find them but no idea how you would automate it. It basically just tells you to take the average odds from as many bookmakers as possible, divide this number into 100 to give the % chance of winning so since we bet on the exchange, we would take the average odds of bookmakers say it comes out at 2 so 100/2 = 50% probability and then the exchange is giving us odds at 2.2 then this would be a value bet but it's a lot of work doing it manually.
The percentage of people who succeed means that in a room full of 100 people you need to be more committed than 94 of them. 
although my account is in profit so I can't be the worst trader/bettor.
