The wisdom of the crowd...

[firlandsfarm]

On the basis that fans wouldn't bet against their team and half the world claim to support ManUre wouldn't that suggest you should always lay MU (especially in recent seasons! ) because their price will be distorted?

[jamesedwards]

On the basis that fans wouldn't bet against their team and half the world claim to support ManUre wouldn't that suggest you should always lay MU (especially in recent seasons! ) because their price will be distorted?

I tried a version of this theory by backing all the draws, hoping to find some +EV from the crowd tending to side with one team or the other. Like everything else I've ever tried on football it soon fell on its arse.

[ShaunWhite]

On the basis that fans wouldn't bet against their team and half the world claim to support ManUre wouldn't that suggest you should always lay MU (especially in recent seasons! ) because their price will be distorted?

I tried a version of this theory by backing all the draws, hoping to find some +EV from the crowd tending to side with one team or the other. Like everything else I've ever tried on football it soon fell on its arse.

I don't think 'the crowd', esp on Betfair, is big enough to stop the smart money from finding the value equilibrium.

[jamesedwards]

On the basis that fans wouldn't bet against their team and half the world claim to support ManUre wouldn't that suggest you should always lay MU (especially in recent seasons! ) because their price will be distorted?

I tried a version of this theory by backing all the draws, hoping to find some +EV from the crowd tending to side with one team or the other. Like everything else I've ever tried on football it soon fell on its arse.

I don't think 'the crowd', esp on Betfair, is big enough to stop the smart money from finding the value equilibrium.

I think you are correct.

[firlandsfarm]

I tried a version of this theory by backing all the draws, hoping to find some +EV from the crowd tending to side with one team or the other. Like everything else I've ever tried on football it soon fell on its arse.

I don't think 'the crowd', esp on Betfair, is big enough to stop the smart money from finding the value equilibrium.

I think you are correct.

I think the fans probably abstain when they think they will lose. And James I tested it using the football price download spreadsheet scalping the footballdata.co.uk files. I know it doesn't have Bf prices but I took a view the Bf price would not be far from the maximum odds in the footballdata data and once you test on that basis you can easily apply a %age enhancement to find the breakeven point (can't remember what it was )