The wisdom of the crowd...

[firlandsfarm]

On the basis that fans wouldn't bet against their team and half the world claim to support ManUre wouldn't that suggest you should always lay MU (especially in recent seasons! ) because their price will be distorted?

[jamesedwards]

On the basis that fans wouldn't bet against their team and half the world claim to support ManUre wouldn't that suggest you should always lay MU (especially in recent seasons! ) because their price will be distorted?

I tried a version of this theory by backing all the draws, hoping to find some +EV from the crowd tending to side with one team or the other. Like everything else I've ever tried on football it soon fell on its arse.

[ShaunWhite]

On the basis that fans wouldn't bet against their team and half the world claim to support ManUre wouldn't that suggest you should always lay MU (especially in recent seasons! ) because their price will be distorted?

I tried a version of this theory by backing all the draws, hoping to find some +EV from the crowd tending to side with one team or the other. Like everything else I've ever tried on football it soon fell on its arse.

I don't think 'the crowd', esp on Betfair, is big enough to stop the smart money from finding the value equilibrium.

[jamesedwards]

On the basis that fans wouldn't bet against their team and half the world claim to support ManUre wouldn't that suggest you should always lay MU (especially in recent seasons! ) because their price will be distorted?

I tried a version of this theory by backing all the draws, hoping to find some +EV from the crowd tending to side with one team or the other. Like everything else I've ever tried on football it soon fell on its arse.

I don't think 'the crowd', esp on Betfair, is big enough to stop the smart money from finding the value equilibrium.

I think you are correct.

[firlandsfarm]

I tried a version of this theory by backing all the draws, hoping to find some +EV from the crowd tending to side with one team or the other. Like everything else I've ever tried on football it soon fell on its arse.

I don't think 'the crowd', esp on Betfair, is big enough to stop the smart money from finding the value equilibrium.

I think you are correct.

I think the fans probably abstain when they think they will lose. And James I tested it using the football price download spreadsheet scalping the footballdata.co.uk files. I know it doesn't have Bf prices but I took a view the Bf price would not be far from the maximum odds in the footballdata data and once you test on that basis you can easily apply a %age enhancement to find the breakeven point (can't remember what it was )

[jamesedwards]

On the basis that fans wouldn't bet against their team and half the world claim to support ManUre wouldn't that suggest you should always lay MU (especially in recent seasons! ) because their price will be distorted?

I tried a version of this theory by backing all the draws, hoping to find some +EV from the crowd tending to side with one team or the other. Like everything else I've ever tried on football it soon fell on its arse.

Just for fun, I've set up a new one of these running just to see what happens. 99 markets in, and loving the early positive variance!

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