A Profitable Model For Predicting the Over/Under Market in Football

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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Euler
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Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm

I found this paper on-line and had a look.

https://researchonline.lse.ac.uk/id/epr ... ls_LSE.pdf

In this video, I explain roughly what they are doing and the key formula: -

https://youtu.be/CK7LyOODP6c

I've created a spreadsheet that replicates this, which I have attached.
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makkad
Posts: 107
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2016 10:38 pm

Thank You
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erictheg7
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Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2026 5:09 pm

Thank you for this.
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Cobalt
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Joined: Sat Jul 22, 2023 9:16 pm

Peter Parker never disappoints! With great power in the markets comes great responsibility to people. Thanks
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Damian0987
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Joined: Thu Sep 10, 2020 9:27 am

Thank you.
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Raskol(nee Kov)
Posts: 8
Joined: Sat Jun 09, 2018 10:17 pm

Thanks for this.
What sites are people using to get the data to populate spreadsheets of this type?
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Mike Oxlong
Posts: 41
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2024 3:14 pm

Raskol(nee Kov) wrote: ↑
Wed Feb 25, 2026 7:54 pm
 Thanks for this.
What sites are people using to get the data to populate spreadsheets of this type?
The original paper states that their data is collected from https://www.football-data.co.uk/
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