UK General Election 2029 - Trading ONLY thread

[Euler]

I did some work looking at local election cycles and how they relate to incumbent parliaments and general election cycles. This is what I found.

[jamesedwards]

Glad to see the BBC are on the ball.

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[LeTiss]

I think the market is spot on with regards to the next UK GE

If it were held today, the market predicts Reform would win most seats, but would struggle to win enough for an overall majority

[Euler]

Looking in detail at a lot of the votes, it looks like, in some cases, certainly around my area, Reform has split the vote with the Conservatives and occasionally let in a different councillor. All the Labour councillors have suffered a haemorrhaging of support.

In my constituency, Labour got just 16 votes.

[ForFolksSake]

How can Labour carry on running the Country - they are effectively dead

Surely there's got to be an early election

[Euler]

Interesting escape route: -

There is an escape route for Labour from certain disaster at the general election: use their Commons majority to ram through PR. It’s cynical, + they’d never govern alone again, but it locks Reform out of No10. The left (Lab, Gr, LD) still have a majority over the right in the UK

[LeTiss]

Interesting escape route: -

There is an escape route for Labour from certain disaster at the general election: use their Commons majority to ram through PR. It’s cynical, + they’d never govern alone again, but it locks Reform out of No10. The left (Lab, Gr, LD) still have a majority over the right in the UK

The problem is that people would see through that cynicism. It would lead to Reform and Tories joining forces, and people would vote tactically in areas, especially where the Lib Dems have so many seats in former strong Tory areas

[firlandsfarm]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8dsvclf3Tk

[jamesedwards]

Interesting escape route: -

There is an escape route for Labour from certain disaster at the general election: use their Commons majority to ram through PR. It’s cynical, + they’d never govern alone again, but it locks Reform out of No10. The left (Lab, Gr, LD) still have a majority over the right in the UK

The problem is that people would see through that cynicism. It would lead to Reform and Tories joining forces, and people would vote tactically in areas, especially where the Lib Dems have so many seats in former strong Tory areas

I do wonder whether this will eventually all end up back with proper right wing Conservative vs left wing Labour parties again.

Reform get most seats at the next election but need a Tory coalition to govern, and could easily end up uniting permanently under some sort of 'New Conservative' banner. Meanwhile Labour is forced more left wing to prevent being wiped out by the Green monster that they created, and end up killing them off.

[weemac]

I do wonder whether this will eventually all end up back with proper right wing Conservative vs left wing Labour parties again.

That sounds about right. In my constituency, the greens came in a close second place.

Heaven help us.

[ForFolksSake]

... Starmer is a delusional fraudster if he thinks he can carry on being Prime Minister till the next election...