UK General Election 2029 - Trading ONLY thread

[ForFolksSake]

... anybody going to the Tommy Robinson 'gig' this weekend

[jamesedwards]

... anybody going to the Tommy Robinson 'gig' this weekend

I have interest in Reform from the perspective of protecting British values, cutting wasteful spend, and a more pragmatic approach to wokeism and political correctness.

But I have no interest in the more hostile xenophobic atmosphere likely to prevail at this sort of event.

[Euler]

Makerfield by-election market is up on Betfair.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/p ... .258206408

[Naffman]

Will probably be the biggest by election ever (interest and betting wise)

[jamesedwards]

Reform only need a 6.7% swing to capture the Makerfield seat from Labour.

In the local elections last week the eight Makerfield constituency wards put Reform at 50.4% compared to Labour's 22.7%. This represents an approximate 18-point local swing from Labour to Reform since the 2024 General Election.

Reform will win.

[Naffman]

Labour voters will be keen to vote for Burnham though, as will some Green voters.

[jamesedwards]

Starmer is going to be sitting their on by-election night hoping that Labour lose their seat.

[Naffman]

Starmer is going to be sitting their on by-election night hoping that Labour lose their seat.

Makes me think 1.3 is a bit short for him to go this year, all the Labour MP's will be waiting for this by election and if it doesn't come to fruition you'd think that Starmer will hold all the aces again.

[Tuco]

Reform only need a 6.7% swing to capture the Makerfield seat from Labour.

In the local elections last week the eight Makerfield constituency wards put Reform at 50.4% compared to Labour's 22.7%. This represents an approximate 18-point local swing from Labour to Reform since the 2024 General Election.

Reform will win.

...if Andy Burnham finally gets the gig to stand in the by-election, that would be funny

[ForFolksSake]

Reform only need a 6.7% swing to capture the Makerfield seat from Labour.

In the local elections last week the eight Makerfield constituency wards put Reform at 50.4% compared to Labour's 22.7%. This represents an approximate 18-point local swing from Labour to Reform since the 2024 General Election.

Reform will win.

...if Andy Burnham finally gets the gig to stand in the by-election, that would be funny

... and if he does and loses, that would be even funnier too - he must be ing himself

[firlandsfarm]

Could it be that Burnham, Streeting and Rayner have agreed a pact whereby whoever wins the other two will get senior jobs ... Oh, and the other candidate will be sent to the back benches!

[Tuco]

Reform will win.

...if Andy Burnham finally gets the gig to stand in the by-election, that ("Reform will win") would be funny

... and if he does and loses, that would be even funnier too - he must be ing himself

...that ("Reform will win") was my point - it would be funny if Reform win the Makerfield seat - really could be a close call.

[ForFolksSake]

Could it be that Burnham, Streeting and Rayner have agreed a pact whereby whoever wins the other two will get senior jobs

Labour can't agree on anything -

Cancelling Local Elections

Mandelson Files Release
Scrapping Winter Fuel Payments for Vulnerable Pensioners
Grooming Gangs Inquiry
Mandatory Digital ID
... oh, and let's not forget the promise to 'Smash the Gangs'

[SpikeyBob]

I think the fact that Nigel Farrage has said that "Reform will throw absolutely everything at it." when talking about the Makerfield by-election shows that he is a little bit worried about Andy Burnham potentially becoming Labour leader.

[Euler]

I think the fact that Nigel Farrage has said that "Reform will throw absolutely everything at it." when talking about the Makerfield by-election shows that he is a little bit worried about Andy Burnham potentially becoming Labour leader.

I think it just wants to cause some trouble.

I do think Andy Burnham has flagged himself as a target here.

The Greens are trying to think about stepping down to give him a clearer run, which is madness, really. You either have your own party or you don't. It seems weird to step aside to make sure that somebody gets elected that you would prefer as a leader. Pretty sure that's how local politics is not supposed to work.