A Profitable Model For Predicting the Over/Under Market in Football

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
erictheg7
Posts: 3
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2026 5:09 pm

Raskol(nee Kov) wrote:
Thu Feb 26, 2026 10:06 am
Mike Oxlong wrote:
Wed Feb 25, 2026 10:12 pm
Raskol(nee Kov) wrote:
Wed Feb 25, 2026 7:54 pm
Thanks for this.
What sites are people using to get the data to populate spreadsheets of this type?
The original paper states that their data is collected from https://www.football-data.co.uk/
Thanks, I saw that in the original paper.
It's just that site, in my opinion, is not very user friendly at all.
Anyway, no big deal now, I've found another site which is far easier to navigate.
What site did you find?
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Euler
Posts: 26937
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm

bobsbetter wrote:
Thu Feb 26, 2026 3:57 pm
how do get / see the spreadsheet
If you look at the first post on this thread, you will see the spreadsheet. You just need to click to download it.
Raskol(nee Kov)
Posts: 10
Joined: Sat Jun 09, 2018 10:17 pm

erictheg7 wrote:
Thu Feb 26, 2026 4:19 pm
Raskol(nee Kov) wrote:
Thu Feb 26, 2026 10:06 am
Mike Oxlong wrote:
Wed Feb 25, 2026 10:12 pm


The original paper states that their data is collected from https://www.football-data.co.uk/
Thanks, I saw that in the original paper.
It's just that site, in my opinion, is not very user friendly at all.
Anyway, no big deal now, I've found another site which is far easier to navigate.
What site did you find?
I think that the one below is much easier to work with. I've just pasted the link to the corners section of the English Premier League

https://www.thestatsdontlie.com/footbal ... e/corners/
erictheg7
Posts: 3
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2026 5:09 pm

Raskol(nee Kov) wrote:
Thu Feb 26, 2026 4:41 pm
erictheg7 wrote:
Thu Feb 26, 2026 4:19 pm
Raskol(nee Kov) wrote:
Thu Feb 26, 2026 10:06 am


Thanks, I saw that in the original paper.
It's just that site, in my opinion, is not very user friendly at all.
Anyway, no big deal now, I've found another site which is far easier to navigate.
What site did you find?
I think that the one below is much easier to work with. I've just pasted the link to the corners section of the English Premier League

https://www.thestatsdontlie.com/footbal ... e/corners/
Thank you!
stoo[id
Posts: 12
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2021 2:06 pm

Thank you
lukke6565
Posts: 1
Joined: Mon May 09, 2022 10:04 am

Thanks everyone for the advice and the very valuable sheet. I can't find a satisfactory site for data on attack and defense pressure. Does anyone have any suggestions? Thanks.
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Euler
Posts: 26937
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm

Defensive pressure is the amount of shots against the home team.
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gstar1975
Posts: 793
Joined: Thu Nov 24, 2011 11:59 am

Are the Home Shots and Corners Conceded supposed to also be an Average or is it a Total for that season?
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Euler
Posts: 26937
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm

gstar1975 wrote:
Fri Feb 27, 2026 10:01 am
Are the Home Shots and Corners Conceded supposed to also be an Average or is it a Total for that season?
I would suggest using somewhere between the last 8-12 matches as an average.

If you use them over the course of the season, it will just reflect what's happened.

But what you're looking for is a blend of current form and recent form, not something that happened 20 matches ago.
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