A Profitable Model For Predicting the Over/Under Market in Football

[erictheg7]

Thanks for this.
What sites are people using to get the data to populate spreadsheets of this type?

The original paper states that their data is collected from https://www.football-data.co.uk/

Thanks, I saw that in the original paper.
It's just that site, in my opinion, is not very user friendly at all.
Anyway, no big deal now, I've found another site which is far easier to navigate.

What site did you find?

[Euler]

how do get / see the spreadsheet

If you look at the first post on this thread, you will see the spreadsheet. You just need to click to download it.

[Raskol(nee Kov)]

The original paper states that their data is collected from https://www.football-data.co.uk/

Thanks, I saw that in the original paper.
It's just that site, in my opinion, is not very user friendly at all.
Anyway, no big deal now, I've found another site which is far easier to navigate.

What site did you find?

I think that the one below is much easier to work with. I've just pasted the link to the corners section of the English Premier League

https://www.thestatsdontlie.com/footbal ... e/corners/

[erictheg7]

Thanks, I saw that in the original paper.
It's just that site, in my opinion, is not very user friendly at all.
Anyway, no big deal now, I've found another site which is far easier to navigate.

What site did you find?

I think that the one below is much easier to work with. I've just pasted the link to the corners section of the English Premier League

https://www.thestatsdontlie.com/footbal ... e/corners/

Thank you!

[stoo[id]

Thank you

[lukke6565]

Thanks everyone for the advice and the very valuable sheet. I can't find a satisfactory site for data on attack and defense pressure. Does anyone have any suggestions? Thanks.

[Euler]

Defensive pressure is the amount of shots against the home team.

[gstar1975]

Are the Home Shots and Corners Conceded supposed to also be an Average or is it a Total for that season?

[Euler]

Are the Home Shots and Corners Conceded supposed to also be an Average or is it a Total for that season?

I would suggest using somewhere between the last 8-12 matches as an average.

If you use them over the course of the season, it will just reflect what's happened.

But what you're looking for is a blend of current form and recent form, not something that happened 20 matches ago.

[direbloom]

Thanks for this.
What sites are people using to get the data to populate spreadsheets of this type?

The original paper states that their data is collected from https://www.football-data.co.uk/

Thanks, I saw that in the original paper.
It's just that site, in my opinion, is not very user friendly at all.
Anyway, no big deal now, I've found another site which is far easier to navigate.

I've been looking all day for anywhere to obtain the pressure numbers for teams/games and I am coming up short! Any nudge in the right direction would be highly appreciated!

[Euler]

You're not looking for pressure numbers; you're just looking for shots and corners for each team. That's all you're looking for.

[stueytrader]

Really interesting video and explanation you've given Peter.

I always wonder with these types of approaches (essentially pure stats based) will these kind of stats eventually or rapidly get assimilated into the markets - then lose value in analysing it?

Or does the market not react enough to these kind of analyses do you think?

[Raskol(nee Kov)]

What site did you find?

I think that the one below is much easier to work with. I've just pasted the link to the corners section of the English Premier League

https://www.thestatsdontlie.com/footbal ... e/corners/

Thank you!

No problem.
However, Peter has spoken about using data from perhaps the last 10 or 12 matches, rather than the whole season. So, I'm not sure that the site I've cited has data of a granular level like that.